Editor's Note:  Be sure to get your picks in for the Stampede Blue Prediction Contest.  You have until 1:00 ET Sunday.  Get your picks in sooner rather than later.

Welcome to Week 11 of your Fantasy Football Sleepers and Busts.  I'll review last week before going into this week's studs and duds.

Sleepers:

• Matt Ryan:  250 passing, 0 TD/1 INT, 18 rush yds = 9 pts.  The Broncos actually shut him down, although the same couldn't be said about Michael Turner.  No TDs mean a bad week for fantasy QBs.
  
• Pierre Thomas:  88 yds rush, 1 TD, 55 yds rec = 19 pts.  Big week for the Saints backup RB, as they finally won a road game.  He could have another decent week this week against GB on Monday night.
  
• Bobby Engram:  30 yards = 3 pts.  I'm done taking Seahawk players.  They aren't worth anything, especially WR.
  

Busts:

• Tony Romo: 198 yds passing, 1 TD/2 INT = 9 pts.  Romo struggled in his first game back, but did get the win, thanks to his battering-ram RB Marion Barber.  I'll take it.
  
• LaDainian Tomlinson: 57 yds rushing, 1 TD, 45 receiving = 15 pts. Tomlinson played much better this week against a very good Steeler defense.  Hopefully it doesn't carry over to this week.
  
• T.J. Houshmandzadeh: 149 yards, 1 TD = 20 pts.  I picked the wrong Bengal WR.  T.J. had a huge week.
  

My bonus pick of Jake Delhomme was not a good one.  Only 98 yds passing, 1 TD = 9 pts.  I can't believe I played him over Shaun Hill last week.  At least I still won.

So I was 2 / 7 last week, and 40/75 for the season. I need to do a better job this week.  I've been struggling.  Here are you fantasy nuggets for Week 12:

Sleepers:

• Jason Campbell vs. SEA:  Jim Zorn returns to where he was coaching last year.  I'm sure he is very familiar with what the Seahawks do, and will help his QB have a big week.  The Redskins desparately need a win, and Campbell should help them do just that.
  
• Justin Fargas vs. DEN: Darren McFadden is back healthy, so he probably won't get as many carries as he has been getting.  However, the Broncos are bad against the run, and Fargas wants to keep his job.  Expect good things from him this week.
  
• Donnie Avery vs. CHI:  The Bears have been torched through the air the past 2 weeks by the Titans and Packers.  I know the Rams are awful, but they have shown, at times, to be able to throw the ball with some consistency.  The Bears are 31st against WR this season, so there is a chance the Rams could find their passing game again this week.
  

Busts:

• Brett Favre vs. TEN: Favre hasn't thrown an INT in 3 weeks.  I think that ends this week.  As much as I want the Jets to win, I just can't see it happening.  Favre is going to take some ill-advised risks, and it will cost him.
  
• Brian Westbrook vs. BAL:  Andy Reid all but decided he didn't want to run the ball last week, as McNabb threw 58 times against a bad Bengals time.  Now they play a legitimate defense in Baltimore.  Don't expect Westbrook to do much.
  
• Roddy White vs. CAR: The Falcons got stomped by the Panthers the first time around, and I'm thinking the same will happen again.  Matt Ryan struggled, meaning White struggled.  Expect more of the same this week.
  

Bonus pick:  Jeff Garcia vs. DET. Garcia is playing one of his former teams this week, and should shred up that defense.  We're just 1 week away from 11-0 vs. 0-11.  I can't wait.

Weekly Derek Anderson "bust" pick:  Quinn got his first win on Monday night, thanks to the big leg of Phil Dawson, and Trent Edwards pulling a Peyton in the first quarter, throwing 3 INTs.  This week, he's playing with a broken finger in his throwing hand.  Let's see how this works out against the team the Colts beat last week, the Texans.

Last week, the Predictor was an awful 5-11.  I guess I was due for a bad week.  That puts me at 100-60 on the season, which is 62.5%. Still a good percentage, but want it to go up.

Here are the picks for Week 12:

We have a changing of the guard at the top of the Prediction Contest this week.  Big Kudos go to TouchdownMonkey, as he got 12 game correct this week, taking a 3 game overall.  Coming in 2nd this week are Road Teams.  I've added both them and Underdogs in this week as well.  We have two others that hit double digits with 10, and they are:

• zkmavz
  
• Memphis Red Dogs

My predictor hit a low for the season, only getting 5 correct.  Hopefully it can bounce back this week.  I won't pull down anyone else who only got 5, who is a "funny guy" on this site...

Overall, the Stampede Blue Leaders are as follows after 10 weeks:

As I said above, TouchdownMonkey has taken the lead after an outstanding week this week.  But check out the Road Teams.  They are doing quite well this year.

The results below are (originally) sorted by Total score.  Feel free to click on a column and sort them yourself.  I've again separated out the "experts" who just picking straight up winners, to make it easier to read. 

Please remember there is a game Thursday night (CIN vs. PIT).  I will keep it open until Sunday at 1:00 ET, but if it is after kickoff on Thursday, you'll just miss that game.  If you want, put your pick for Thursday in the Comments here.

Stampede Blue Prediction Contest Picks Week 11

Stampede Blue Prediction Contest Week 12

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We are all in a pretty good mood after yesterday's 33-27 win over the Texans.  The offense finally showed their true self, and we are back atop the wild card standings.  Tonight, a 5-4 Buffalo team will host the 3-6 Browns, in a game we should all be rooting for the team employing my 2nd favorite quarterback, Brady Quinn. 

We all know how obnoxious ESPN is, especially on MNF.  I, along with Brian G. over at Buffalo Rumblings, expect them to be especially so tonight, as Quinn will be the focal point of their broadcast.  I thought I'd come up with a game for all of you to play, based on what topics or names come up.  I'll categorize them from Multiple Times to Very Obscure, along with the requisite drinks of sweet nectar that go along with it.  Here goes:

Take one drink for each time they say the following, as they'll happen multiple times:

• Derek Anderson
• Notre Dame
• Charlie Weis
• "Hometown QB"
  

Take two drinks for each time they say the following, as they may happen multiple times, but at least once:

• 2007 Draft
  
• Lack of Arm Strength
• Showing Derek Anderson spinning a ball on the sidelines
• Quinn's record against Trent Edwards in college (3-0)
  

Take three drinks for each time they say the following, as these are starting to get obscure, but they (ESPN) will be obnoxious

• Tyrone Willingham
• A.J. Hawk
  
• Actual video of the 2007 draft, complete with his reaction when the Dolphins selected the Ginn Family.
• Tom Brady speaking to him on the phone while in college

Take four drinks for each time they say the following, as these have nothing to do with the game, but ESPN doesn't care:

• Jeff Samardzija
  
• Jimmy Clausen
  
• Notre Dame's bowl record over the past 15 years
  
• John McCain

Take an entire bottle of Irish Whiskey, and chug the whole thing:

• Show any of the pictures found in this collage (courtesy of Deadspin).  Especially the last one, as it is the most famous.  

I'm going to keep track of all of these things, and hope everything gets said at least once, other than the last thing, as I don't think my liver could take that much obnoxiousness.  Here's to enjoying the game a little more, and Lee Evans/Braylon Edwards combining for less than 9 fantasy points.  Go Browns!

Editor's Note:  Be sure to get your picks in for the Stampede Blue Prediction Contest.  You have until 1:00 ET Sunday.  Get your picks in sooner rather than later.

Welcome to Week 10 of your Fantasy Football Sleepers and Busts.  I'll review last week before going into this week's studs and duds.

Sleepers:

• Chad Pennington:  209 passing, 1 TD/1 INT = 12 pts.  Although his 1 touchdown pass was pretty neat (flea flicker), not a good day overall for Pennington.  They did win at least.
  
• Leon Washington:  54 yds rush, 14 yds rec = 6 pts.  I was one week early on this pick.  The Jets put up 47 on the Rams, but none were by Washington.  And I lost by 5 points.
  
• Matt Jones:  62 yards = 6 pts.  Another 0-3 for my sleeper picks.  I figured I was playing it safe going against the Lions.  Porter and Williamson got the TDs though.
  

Busts:

• Peyton Manning: 240 yds passing, 3 TD = 27 pts.  Aww shucks, I got this wrong too.  I'm so disappointed.  Thanks Peyton for proving me wrong.  I'm sure he read this, and wanted to prove me wrong.
  
• Brian Westbrook: 26 yds rushing, 33 receiving = 5 pts. I got one!  Westbrook was shut down by the Giants defense.  I don't expect Westbrook to have similar numbers vs. Cincinnati this week.
  
• Andre Johnson: 66 yards = 6 pts.  Can we keep Johnson at these numbers this week too, please?.
  

My bonus pick of David Garrard was spot on.  238 yds passing, 2 TD, 10 yds rush = 22 pts.  Jacksonville doesn't lose to 2 winless teams in a row.  I'm not looking forward to Thanksgiving, watching the Lions get slaughtered by the Titans.

So I was 3 / 7 last week, and 38/68 for the season. All the teams have finished their byes, so your fantasy teams are fully stocked from now on.  Here are you fantasy nuggets for Week 11:

Sleepers:

• Matt Ryan vs. DEN:  Cpt. Intangibles has been playing quite well this year, and should continue that at home against the Broncos, who rank 26th against Fantasy QBs this season.
  
• Pierre Thomas vs. KC: The Chiefs are dead last against RB this season, and Brees has struggled as of late.  Expect the Saints to run more than normal, and Thomas to pick up those carries and yards.
  
• Bobby Engram vs. ARI:  Hasselbeck is back from injury, and Arizona is dead last against WR.  I'm looking for a nice game from Engram this week.
  

Busts:

• Tony Romo vs. WAS: Romo is also back from injury this week, playing a divisional game, on the road, against a defense ranked 5th against QBs.  Terry's not gonna like it, but Romo's gonna struggle.
  
• LaDainian Tomlinson vs. PIT:  This hasn't been the greatest year of LT to begin with, and the Steelers are #3 against RB this season.  No big week for LT.
  
• T.J. Houshmandzadeh vs. PHI: The Eagles have pounded their lousy opponents this season, and it should be the same Sunday afternoon against the Bengals.  They are also 6th best against WR this season.  Plus I have the Eagles D this week, and I need lots of points from them without my man Portis.
  

Bonus pick:  Jake Delhomme vs. DET. Delhomme was awful last week against the Raiders, but get the lowly Lions this week at home.  I'll go out on a limb and say he has a better week than 4 picks last week.

Weekly Derek Anderson "bust" pick:  I'm glad this is over.  The Browns play Monday Night in Buffalo.  Quinn should have another nice game, with it being blown at the end by his incompetent head coach.

Last week, the Predictor was a spectacular 11-3, even with missing the Thursday night game.  I went through the season, and found the predictor is 95-49 on the season, which is 66.0%.  That makes me ecstatic.  I hope it continues throughout the rest of the season.

Here are the picks for Week 11:

It was a great week in the prediction contest, as 6 people hit double digits this week, although none of them were mine.  We had a newcomer this week hit 12/14, and that was DDCOLTS.  We also had someone get 11 correct, and that was ColtsFanInChiTown.  Four others got 10 correct, and they are:

• shake n bake
  
• peytonsthebest
  
• oldecoltsfan
• Memphis Red Dogs

For the second week in a row, Home Teams were the worst predictor, only getting 3 games right this week (ATL, NE, NYJ).  

We should start seeing higher scores, as there will be a full slate of 16 games each week, now that all the byes are over.  Let's see who can be the first to hit 14.

Overall, the Stampede Blue Leaders are as follows after 10 weeks:

Shake maintains his lead, giving himself a little breathing room.  Beware of our favorite Patriot homer, as he has been doing quite well the past 3 weeks.  He's inching closer to the top.

The results below are (originally) sorted by Total score.  Feel free to click on a column and sort them yourself.  I've again separated out the "experts" who just picking straight up winners, to make it easier to read. 

Please remember there is a game Thursday night (NE vs. NYJ).  I will keep it open until Sunday at 1:00 ET, but if it is after kickoff on Thursday, you'll just miss that game.  If you want, put your pick for Thursday in the Comments here.

Stampede Blue Prediction Contest Picks Week 10

Stampede Blue Prediction Contest Week 11

Continue reading this post »

Editor's Note:  Be sure to get your picks in for the Stampede Blue Prediction Contest.  You have until 1:00 ET Today.  Get your picks in sooner rather than later.

Welcome to Week 10 of your Fantasy Football Sleepers and Busts.  I'll review last week before going into this week's studs and duds. 

Due to the lateness of this, I'll put everything after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

We've all seen how the Colts have struggled on 3rd downs this year.  Seemingly every third down is converted by our opponent, especially at the most inopportune times.  I decided to take a closer look at the Colts 3rd down defense, breaking it down by:

• Run/Pass
• Distance

Here is a summary of the first 8 games, and after the jump I'll put each individual game, so you can see how the defense did against each opponent.

Some things to notice:

• Running plays on Third and short are a perfect 16/16.  That, to put it bluntly, is awful.  We have not stopped a 3rd and short on the ground all year.  It's true we've had some struggles with the DL, but that is absolutely unacceptable.
• Related to the first point, why would a team try to pass the ball on the Colts with 3rd and short?  Minnesota was the worst, going 0/3, and not trying to run it at all on 3rd and short.
• Teams are only 3/16 running the ball on 3rd and 4 or more.  That is very good, and unexpected.  Teams have tried to catch the defense off guard in a passing situation, and it hasn't worked. 
  
• There were only 2 times that the defense stopped the 3rd down, but had a penalty that gave the other team a first down.  I certainly thought it was more, but it was only twice.  And only once did it lead to points.
• The Titans were 4/6 on 3rd and longs.  That game can boil down right to that.  Even just stopping 2 of those could have been the difference.
• Overall, the Colts rank 30th in 3rd down percentage.  My numbers are slightly different, as I included those 2 cases where a penalty gave the other team a first down a conversion, while officially they were fails.  That seems dumb to me, but it is what it is.  If the Colts expect to make the playoffs, this needs to dramatically improve.  Getting down under 40% should be the goal.

Like I said above, game by game numbers are after the jump. 

Continue reading this post »

Last week, the Predictor was .500 at 7-7.  It got the Bengals winning their first game, but missed badly on the Seahawks and Raiders.

Here are the picks for Week 10.  There are a couple things here I'd like to comment on:

• It really likes Cleveland tonight.  Everyone here knows my feelings, and expect the Browns to win tonight.  I'll have my Brady for Heisman shirt on tonight as I watch.
• The Saints are very good at home, bad on the road.  This agrees with that.
• Baltimore over Houston is the highest probability game I've seen yet this year.  It must know Sage Rosenfels is back under center. 
  
• It still really likes Oakland.  I need to do more research as to why that is, because it just doesn't make much sense.
• Eagles/Giants is a toss up, which I also agree with.  Should be a good game Sunday Night.