Like Scruffy, I've had a long week, and like Scruffy, I better reign it in a bit today.

Always required reading. Good to see a link in time for me to post it.

The podcast returns tomorrow. From here on, it's all off the cuff and all whatever Seahawks stuff I want to talk about. Like Seattle, my goal is to get better before next season. One thing I'll be spending a lot of time on is college football. Seattle falling so quickly from contention allows fans to get a jump on prospect hunting. That's kind of cool. Kind of.

Advanced NFL Stats gives Washington an 83% of beating Seattle. Part of that huge margin is home field matters less when one team completely dominates the other. It's that kind of season. With Seattle so bad, does the Zorn angle lose significance? I'm sure it's all we'll here about, I even anticipate a commentator saying Hasselbeck is play poorly because he's lost his quarterback's coach (maybe he is)

Seattle is no longer the worst team in football at forcing turnovers. It's a distant memory now, but last season Seattle had the best defense in football per drive. Adding a running game was supposed to allow it to protect leads and reduce the total number of drives. Perhaps even force more desperation plays by the opposing offense. Instead, the defense has crumbled and the running game faded. That stampede over San Francisco's "Big Sub" seems like a distant memory now. Is this rushing attack any good or did it feast on Saint Louis and a San Francisco nickel?

From here on out, Matt Hasselbeck is a huge story. Against Arizona, Hasselbeck attempted to throw into a somewhat small window four times, and all four the defender caught the pass. His pass attempt on the two point conversion was especially worrisome. The pass wan't into coverage, it wasn't terribly errant, but Ralph Brown overtook the route and grabbed the pick. It's not an official pick, but that's semantics. The defender caught the pass. Seattle needs Hasselbeck to play like a quality quarterback. Not Pro Bowl caliber. Not 2007. Seattle needs Hasselbeck to have some career left.

Josh Wilson, who is not hurt (further evidence why I don't read practice reports), is another interesting story. It's true that Wilson's contributions Sunday were tied to big plays and that he allowed a lot of yards in between. His big plays more than made up for his yardage allowed, but one game of big plays does not a DB make. See Michael Boulware. We've been here before fans. Boulware's picks were total, run under the bad pass luck. Wilson's picks have been in tight coverage. It's still possible the picks dry up. It's also possible Wilson continues to pick passes until opposing quarterbacks simply avoid targetting him. Look to see if Seattle's sacks spike. That could be the hidden contribution of a team with two good corners.

We'll run a Michael Crabtree open thread tomorrow night. I have some Vertical Epic and 90 Minute IPA around, so I might be a little festive or celebratory. Crabtree is fun to watch. I don't think Seattle drafts him. Tim Ruskell seems opposed to taking a wide receiver early in the draft and spending a top ten pick on Crabtree would be a huge departure from form.

Conventional wisdom argues tackles are good. A defender records a tackle by stopping the progress of the ball carrier, by being involved, by doing his job. Modern analysis argues that it's frequently not good when a corner records a tackle. Tackles are typically the end product of blown coverage. For instance, unanimous best corner in football Nnandi Asomugha has 34 all season. Josh Wilson had ten. On Sunday. All ten were solo tackles. Everything about that sounds bad. He also had a forced fumble, interception and pass defense. One might call his performance uneven. If Wilson were debited for yardage allowed on every tackle, his deductions would rival Seattle's net passing yards: 146 to 153. 14.6 per target and a 90% success rating - that's bad.

From those two schools an interesting and superior synthesis can be created. A tackle is not bad, but is often indicative of blown coverage. It's also indicative of awareness, closing speed, ability to fight off blockers and, of course, ability to tackle. If we provide context for Wilson's ten tackles, the kid doesn't look so bad. He looks quite good. I'm not adding rationalizations, only context. Here's Wilson's list of non-special teams plays that accrued an official stat, and the context of that play. In parentheses is a running tally of the yards allowed that Wilson is directly responsible for.

1. First and ten, Josh Wilson's assignment, Larry Fitzgerald, receives for nine. (9)
2. Third and one, Wilson's assignment, Fitzgerald, receives for three and the first. (12)
3. Arizona attempts an end around, Anquan Boldin holds Wilson. Net lost yards: 10. (2)
4. First and ten, Wilson's assignment, Boldin, receives for nine. (11)
5. Kelly Jennings' assignment, Boldin, breaks tackles by Jennings and Brian Russell and receives for 45. Wilson tackles. (11)
6. First and ten, Wilson's assignment, Fitzgerald, receives for 33. (44)
7. First and ten, Jordan Babineaux's assignment, Boldin, receives for nine. Wilson tackles. (44)
8. Third and four, Babineaux's assignment, Steve Breaston, receives for six. Wilson tackles. (44)
9. First and ten, Wilson is assigned Jerheme Urban, picks Kurt Warner's pass, returns the ball 58 yards. (-14).
10. First and ten, Wilson's assignment, Fitzgerald, receives for eight. (-6)
11. Third and seven, Wilson's assignment, Fitzgerald, receives for 21. Wilson forces Fitzgerald to fumble. (15)
12. First and ten, Boldin is targeted on a wide receiver screen, Fitzgerald attempts to block Wilson, but Wilson squirts under and records the tackle after only 4. (15)

Giving Wilson no credit for stopping an offensive player he was not assigned, something he did four times, and no credit for forcing a fumble that Seattle didn't recover, Wilson's net yards allowed is 15. 15 yards allowed on twelve plays. If you didn't chart it, you didn't see it, but Josh Wilson had a mighty fine afternoon against the best wide receiver corps in the NFL.

Get better soon Pistol.

This is good news. It doesn't exacerbate his injury. It does protect him and allow Seattle's young defensive ends to get as many looks as possible. Here's the big question, does Seattle retain Kerney in 2009? Julius Peppers is sure to be franchised. Terrell Suggs is a manbeast, but might be mismatched within the system. Kerney played strong to start the season, is he still the best end Seattle can hope to attain? I'd side on Suggs, who is a true difference maker and a young 26.

Matt Hasselbeck has avoided blame, but played terrible. Excuses abound, valid and otherwise. When a fan favorite declines, fans tend to take the long route to accepting it, ripping through the new, disliked and provably bad player's first. And though I'm a long way from saying Hasselbeck has spiraled into an inexorable decline towards retirement a la Shaun Alexander, it's overdue we recognize that this season might be Hasselebeck's first step towards losing it. It's not controversial to say a 33 year old quarterback with an intermediate peak and a lengthy injury history might be in the midst of decline, it's controversial to say your team's 33 year old quarterback with a intermediate peak and a lengthy injury might be in the midst of decline. This isn't just about timing, injury and surrounding talent, Hasselbeck is making bad reads. On both of Rogers-Cromartie's picks, the pass was thrown slow enough that Rogers-Cromartie simply overtook the receiver without breaking coverage. I want the Beck of old back as much as anyone, but what has he done to make us believe that's possible?

 John Carlson

1. Quick Curl in the middle, open
2. Blocks out Gerald Hayes
3. Good block
4. Slow release, Beck sacked
5. Motions right to left, pulls right in front of Julius Jones, blocks DB
6. Outlet right
7. So-so block against Chike Okeafor
8. Trips, does not factor

Second Drive

1. Seam route
2. Drag, completely open, Hasselbeck throws a pick

Third Drive

1. Double hitch corner route; awesome route, wide open, drops ball
2. Good block, outlets right

Curl, decoy, Morris for the score. Carlson is Seattle's first tight end since Stevens opponents are clearly game planning for. Assuming this offense progresses, Carlson's presence should help open up plays underneath.

Josh Wilson

Continue reading this post »

It was bound to happen sometime. Somehow my recording crapped out halfway into the second quarter. I have a backup so The Tape will return tomorrow. Since we have this unexpected open day, let's tackle a hot topic up for much debate: The Seattle Seahawks Core. The talent they will build their next great team upon.

I'll split this into a few simple categories.

Current Contributors:

Marcus Trufant: The soon to be 28 Trufant just makes the cut. He should hold his current level of play until roughly 2012. Peak Potential: All-Pro CB

Brandon Mebane: Just 23, Mebane is a year or two from entering his prime. He should still be valuable in 2016. Peak Potential: All-Pro DT

Lofa Tatupu: Tatupu turned 26 on Saturday. He's looked a little better as a blitzer this season, but for the most part, Tatupu has maxed out his talent. Improved contributions from Tatupu are dependent on surrounding talent, especially at DT. I love Tats and all, but I think we'll be hungering for a new MLB in 2013. Peak Potential: HOF MLB.

LeRoy Hill: Hill is also 26, but unlike Tatupu has some room for improvement. It's debatable whether Hill ever turns the corner as a cover linebacker, but skill improvements are possible throughout a player's career. Thanks to a little better quickness and agility, Hill could decline a bit more gracefully than Tatupu. Contingent on Seattle re-signing him. Peak Potential: Pro Bowl OLB.

Julian Peterson: Pete's 30, but three to four more years of top play is not unlikely. He won't make it, but I think in terms of pure contributions, Peterson has the potential peak value of a Hall of Famer. If this team is able to retool before he declines, don't be surprised if he pulls a career year at 31, 32 or 33. Peak Potential: All-Pro OLB

Current Role Players:

Darryl Tapp: Is this Tapp good enough? He's about a year from his peak (Tapp is 24), but it's unwise to think he's set to bust out. No, this is Tapp: Disruptive, a good pass rusher and capable of cutting into runs, but not great holding the point and not nearly an elite rusher. Tapp is a great situational player and better in space than most ends, but if Lawrence Jackson and Tapp are thought of as the ends of the future, Seattle might have to continuously insert hired-gun free agents to fill out their rotation. Peak Potential: Top 20 DE

Young Players with Great Potential:

John Carlson (24): Carlson slips to this list for two reasons: Poor hands in traffic and an unnerving injury history. It's not the severity of Carlson's injuries but the location: knee. Right now, he's played exceptionally for a first year tight end. Carlson could be a Pro Bowl player as soon as 2009. Peak Potential: Pro Bowl TE

Josh Wilson: I don't want to oversell one of my guys here, but Wilson is showing marvelous potential. Wilson has six career starts, but already has an excellent eye for jumping routes. Aggressiveness is not itself a weakness and until Wilson is actually beat guessing wrong, I'm not going to assume jumping routes makes him susceptible to being beat deep. Wilson does a great job of tracking the ball and still staying with his man, a combination Kelly Jennings has yet to master. Last week, his return yards exceeded Seattle's total offense (199 to 196). Wilson has had a hot run and is only 23 at a position notorious for a steep learning curve, but it's way too early to know he will be good. Corners who have much of their value tied to picks are often eventually exposed. Peak Potential: Top 10 CB

Chris Spencer (26): Ruskell's very first pick and very first project pick has the look of raw talent making good. Spencer's put together a nice string of games and without much stability or talent at guard. He's put some space between him and his last shoulder surgery and is finally looking like the athletic powerhouse Seattle drafted. Too few good games and too many bad makes Spencer's future still undecided, but it's nice to know that, finally, a reasonable return on 2005's first round pick is possible. Peak Value: Pro Bowl C

Talented Players that Currently Suck:

Kelly Jennings: Jennings is fresh off his best game of the season, but Trips will need more than three pass defenses to undue a season's worth of regression. Pure cover corner is a precarious career path. The second you cease to cover, you no longer have any value. Not as a tackler, not as an interception threat. Jennings is nearing 26 and if Ruskell expected him to fill out he might want to start sneaking weight gainer into his meals. That really good weight gainer with flax seed oil and stuff. I vigorously defended Jennings throughout 2007, and he's not to blame for Seattle's weakened pass rush and lack of safety help, but on his own merits, Jennings true potential is suddenly very uncertain. Peak Potential: Top 20 CB

Lawrence Jackson: The man with many nicknames, the man I'm tempted to refer to as Gomer Pyle until he stops sucking has been a huge part of Seattle's defensive decline. The team drafted Pyle expecting an able defensive end. It got a player yet to truly earn a single sack. I suspected Jackson might not be a pass rush terror to start, but my low end projection is already looking like a reach (4 sacks). He's played well enough against the run, but that's a fringe part of his game. A defensive tackle could hold the point. Jackson is getting off the snap pretty well, moving pretty well and tracking the ball carrier pretty well, but still has shown no ability to slip blockers. I've always said don't expect a player to develop new skills. Refinement, improvement, sure, but Jackson didn't just start playing football, pass rush tech should be old hat. It's not and I'm sincerely worried. Peak Potential: Unknowable.

Courtney Taylor: Depends a bit on his expected role, if we see the low end as Bobby Engram lite and top end as Darrell Jackson with RAC, then Engram lite is looking more attainable, but I still have faith in Taylor. The tools and skills are there, but Taylor has had trouble finding a role in this offense. The one great unknowable entering the season, Taylor's ability to get open, is not looking favorable right now. Way too early to tell. Peak Potential: Unknowable

Wild Cards:

Red Bryant: Bryant straddles a bunch of lists. He could be a current underachiever that soon makes an above average starter. He could max out as a great rotational defensive tackle. He could be eaten by injuries and never consistently contribute. Too little information to know. I'll say this, his talent is as good as anyone on this list. Peak Potential: Pro Bowl DT

Owen Schmitt: Beer Truck looks a little wide/pied eyed pass blocking. He's not quite in groove run blocking and I still don't love his athleticism, but you won't find a stronger kid so damned enamored busting heads. As a future lead blocker, Lorenzo Neal/Moran Norris is still a possibility and unlike those two, Schmitt's got a little quicks through the hole. Way too little information to know. Peak Potential: Pro Bowl FB (Presumably in 2020 - well after his best seasons)

Etc.

Rob Sims: I still think Sims makes a good right guard, but kid will miss this development time. Here's hoping the spot's still open when he's healthy enough to play.

Ray Willis: His value depends a bit on his expected role. As a better Porkchop, Willis is very nice offensive line depth. If Seattle expects to construct a line with Sean Locklear at left tackle and Willis at right, I'm a little more concerned.

Justin Forsett: Good punt returner. Needs a single regular season snap before I make any bold predictions about his ability as a rusher. Probably makes a good scat back compliment to a regular rusher.

Jordan Kent: I oversold myself on Kent. I broke one of my cardinal rules, don't expect a player to acquire a new skill. Unfortunately for Kent, that "new skill" is playing football. Not sure where Kent stands anymore, but I fear the talent will never translate. He had a lot of snaps to achieve even a target, if you saw once since week one you'll have to phone me when.*

Mansfield Wrotto: Possibly Seattle's left guard of the future. One of the few truly talented players that still is too green and too underexposed to know much about. Guy is an athletic mauler with excellent run blocking potential. Now, if he can only see the blitz.

Steve Vallos: I championed Vallos spring of 2007. I now think he's months from being released. I don't think Vallos has the talent to cut it.

Jamar Adams: Complete crapshoot. No realistic way of knowing.

Baraka Atkins: Sort of the Wrotto of the defense, both are a young 24, both have great size and athleticism and both are players that have shown enough in the way of skill to think one day their athleticism could cause them to truly break out.

And that's your core. Looking at it, player by player, I would hope fans understand Seattle isn't likely to contend again in 2009. The core is thin on offense and the core of yore, Mike Holmgren's core, is on its way out. Matt Hasselbeck has entered an age and has a recent injury history such that 2008 does not portend a "return to form". As I often say, injury is a form of decline. Branch will be 30 before next season. Walter Jones looks to be finishing out his contract. Julius Jones and TJ Duckett are good players, but essentially hired guns at a non-premium position. I don't think Mike Wahle has a future with Seattle. Sean Locklear is either an overpaid serviceable right tackle or a left tackle in waiting. It wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't finish out his contract with Seattle.

But looking at it, I hope fans see roster construction with a purpose. I shun most sports clichés, but "window" is somewhat instructive here. Much of the talent that allowed Seattle to contend the past five seasons is gone or declining. That's Seattle's last window. The Seahawks have been at their best when Mike Holmgren's eye for offensive talent has overlapped with Tim Ruskell's smarts for roster building. Holmgren's talent is disappearing and Ruskell's talent is still developing. That's the transition phase that started this season and should continue at least through 2009. But unlike most teams whose window is rapidly closing, the Seattle Seahawks are already constructing the foundation for their next great team. With so many players entering or squarely within their prime as of 2010, the Seahawks have the core in place to compete and compete and contend for seasons to come.

*I'm aware he had two targets at San Francisco. This is hyperbole.

Before the draft, I gushed about John Carlson's route running. That's the skill that's making him a contributor. I hope the hands and run blocking will develop.

This represent the plays Carlson was on the field and is not contiguous.

1. Carlson slants into a "short" or "stick" into the flat, receives for an easy 3.
2. Perfectly executed hook route, draws double coverage, Matt Hasselbeck targets Bobby Engram for 18 and the first.
3. Missed block (Run).
4. Picks up blitzing Adrian Wilson
5. Teams with Walter Jones to block Travis Laboy

Josh Wilson got plenty of looks in the first. On many, he was inches from awesome. Occasionally he was solid, and never did he really do anything too bad. I'll take that from a second year corner matched against Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald.

Here's a play by play look with occasional elaboration: 

1. Wilson over Fitz, man coverage, Warner looks left, turns, looks right, succumbs to the blitz, flips the ball high into the air and somehow Levi Brown catches it and runs for four. Those who deny the role of luck in football - watch a game.
2.  Over Fitz, off coverage, does not factor.
3. Man, run right, does not factor.
4. Off, nickel, short zone, does not factor
5. Man, tight coverage, Fitz receives for 8.
6. Off, doesn't factor
7. Man, quick slant to Fitz, very tight cover, ball thrown perfectly, Fitz displays amazing hands extending from his body and making a sure catch, 3 yards, first down allowed.
8. Nickel, blitzes, Boldin for 13.
9. Nickel, end around, Wilson is blocked by Anquan Boldin. Wilson forces himself right and towards the ball carrier, held; Anquan Boldin, offensive holding, ten yard penalty.
10. Does not factor
11. Contains Leonard Pope, Tatupu records the tackle.
    
12. Blitz, pressure, forces short pass, Boldin stopped after six. Punt.

Second Drive:

1. Jumps route, nearly picks it, bobbles pass, ball bounces into Boldin's hands, Boldin for 9.
2. Nickel, Wilson right, Boldin breaks through Kelly Jennings, Brian Russell and runs around Deon Grant. Wilson runs across the field and tackles Boldin after 45.
3. Wilson is drawn away from a run play, does not factor.
4. Zone, doesn't factor.
5. Off coverage, run play. Does not factor.
6. Short zone right, Fitzgerald receives for twenty. Does not factor.
7. Short zone, does not factor.

That's a pretty good quarter. Wilson bares no responsibility for Boldin's long reception. He was solid against Fitzgerald and within centimeters of a pick and even contributed as a blitzer.

Here's the counter to the Tim Ruskell sucks argument: Ruskell inherited a franchise with a small handful of top tier talent, virtually no depth, and few players behind that top tier that were even NFL caliber. Want to argue that, look at the roster Ruskell inherited. Many of the problems the current Hawks face started in the final season of GM Mike Holmgren and flourished under the tyranny of "Trader Bob" Whitsitt. The two's sketchy drafts and free agent debacles left Seattle consistently scrapping to assemble a team. The few hits Holmgren/Whitsitt had almost all still play with Seattle: Maurice Morris and Rocky Bernard from 2002; Marcus Trufant and Seneca Wallace from 2003; Sean Locklear and Craig Terrill from 2004. The missing players are: Jerramy Stevens (2002), Ken Hamlin and Josh Brown (2003), DJ Hackett, Donnie Jones and maybe Niko Koutovides (2004) depending on how low you want to set the bar. That's the sum talent of three terrible drafts.

A draft class reaches maturity in three to five years. Four years removed from 2004 and six from 2002, with two first day picks starting for Seattle and three total starting anywhere in the NFL, isn't it time that Whitsitt and Holmgren share the blame?

Scrutinizing Tim Ruskell's moves, it's much harder to affix blame. I think fans fail to see that Tim Ruskell took on a rebuilding project. He's patched holes from the start. This season, the players he patched with aren't instant producers like Lofa Tatupu, Leroy Hill, Julian Peterson, Deon Grant, Patrick Kerney, Brandon Mebane, and Joe Jurevicius. Those cracks in Seattle's foundation finally brought the whole damn team down. Well, those cracks, injuries, bad luck and Arizona finally finding itself. But scrutinize the moves Ruskell made and the mess he was left and it's clear who's most to blame for this awful season.

This week we take an every play look at John Carlson and Josh Wilson. Evaluating receivers and DBs is...not ideal. It's important to watch every play and see a player's impact between targets. We'll do a quarter a day.

Heading in, that's the big story. If Mike Wahle is injured enough, not only will he be placed on the IR, but he won't likely return with Seattle in 2009. Last week, Mike Holmgren made it known that there would be changes at wide receiver and hinted at the return of Courtney Taylor. That preceded the release of Keary Colbert. Could this week's changes be at safety? Seattle's already signed Jamar Adams off the practice squad.

It's about time. Don't worry, I won't indulge in this too often.

2009 Mock Draft

16. Myron Rolle, SS, Florida State University

Rolle is up for a Rhodes Scholarship. Need I say more? He's an Arthur Ashe award winner. He's a really great guy and you could totally set him up with Peggy and she'd die! His contributions on the field are a bit lacking. His last interception was in 2006. He has no sacks. Coaches love Rolle and word is he's assignment correct on almost every play. This guy's a Seahawk. Etched in stone. And when he spends 2009 abroad, Jamar Adams can start and still be ten times better than Brian Russell.

39. B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College

Worried Seattle is too small on defense. Well this guy's wicked fat. Actually, Raji is fast and powerful as hell. He has nine sacks over the last two seasons and did this.

That's pretty cool. He's what fanboys want Howard Green to be and his presence will allow Brandon Mebane to move into Rocky Bernard's spot. Raji matched with Mebane will cause blocking havoc for Seattle's opponents and help free up Darryl Tapp and Lawrence Jackson.

44. Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri

Now we get small. I figure Daniel measures about 5'106 at the Combine. That's gonna destroy his draft stock. I figure before the Combine Daniel tears up the Senior Bowl. Which do you think Tim Ruskell considers more important? Daniel has a career 68.5% percentage over 37 starts. He's played an additional 10 games off the bench. Daniel is a tremendous athlete and an academic star. Ruskell doesn't target small players, he targets good players underrated because their size. See Josh Wilson and Brandon Mebane. Next season, I think we add Daniel to that list.

There's some implied trading in there. I think Seattle trades down and then uses those picks to trade up in the second. We'll leave the rest for the long, long offseason.

This was a damn exciting game. It's important to see the significance of playing well, because this season is over. There's good reason to think the Cardinals should have clobbered Seattle and at the start of the game, they did. But Seattle showed a lot of talent.

Josh Wilson is playing out his mind for a second year corner with the experience of a rookie. What really excites is that Wilson is showing unmistakable talent. His coverage skills are still not strong, but don't interpret taking licks from Larry Fitzgerald as an incurable weakness.

It took a half, but Kelly Jennings started to show his former cover ability. Jennings is such a wild card. There's reason to think he's suffering growing pains, but has the potential to be a solid cover corner. There's reason to think today was a fluke and this season represents offensive coordinators figuring out and exploiting Jennings' weaknesses.

Darryl Tapp belongs starting. I hope that's clear. He's not a great end, nor does he really have the potential to be great. But he's solid, young and above average.

At this point, maybe Baraka Atkins should get a start.

And, well, I think Brandon Mebane has a shot at Hawaii. Kid's special.

Seattle isn't a good team. I know, NEWSFLASH! Matt Hasselbeck didn't change that. Deion Branch didn't change that. At full strength, Seattle looks about average. I'm sick of pointing fingers so I won't. It's just the facts. But, for the first time in a long time, it's also young. Not throughout, but at important positions and predominately. Not everyone on roster will stick and youth in of itself isn't good. Lawrence Jackson might suck forever. I doubt it, but you never know. Mansfield Wrotto may never start. Bad teams are often young, but young doesn't equal talented. Seattle is young and talented. It's building something. And I trust Tim Ruskell's methods.

From here on out, we'll can the opponent previews and focus on the team itself and its future.

Game Ball: Brandon Mebane. Wilson deserves consideration for his pick, forced fumble and strong game returning, but was kind of abused in coverage. I want to type Walter Jones, but guy just can't stop the edge rush anymore. No, Mebane gets the nod. His forced fumble put Seattle back into it. I don't think it's any reach to say that right now, not considering position, Mebane is the best player on Seattle's roster.