As has been pointed out in the sidebar a couple of times, Adrian "Spell THIS, Sucka!" Wojnarowski over at Yahoo Sports is reporting that pre-season games actually count towards Darius' total when determining if he's played 10 games this season.  He played 6 for Boston, plus 2 regular-season games, leaving just 2 left for him to qualify.  Adrian says he has confirmation from the league office but doesn't cite a source by name.  Chances are this will take a little bit to confirm and sort out.

Even if true and even if somebody signs Darius and plays him a token 2 games, refer to the Darius Miles Revisited post below.  The thing that amazes me about this is that everybody who reports on this, even people who should understand more of the nuances of this situation, either states or implies that this destroys our cap space and flexibility this summer.  A-Woj even goes so far as to cross the Blazers off of the list of destinations in 2009-10.  If that were true, it would mean that we only had Miles' original slot to play with in the first place, right?  That wouldn't have made us that great of a player anyway.

We'll almost certainly still have space.  We WILL certainly have options to create space if we need it.  This is not a "Golden State can't sign Gilbert Arenas" situation, nor anything close to it.

Should Miles play those last 2 games I will happily offer a bet to the first serious person who will accept.  My end of it will be a unique, specially-designed site t-shirt just for you.  We can negotiate the other end depending on who takes me up on it.  I will pay off, both with the shirt and public penance, if the Blazers make it through the whole summer without making whatever moves they want to.  If they're stymied, still, constipated on the trade or free agent market I will publicly eat my hat.  Personally I think you'd be silly to bet the other side, Miles or no Miles.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

Well, that wasn't our best win of the year and it certainly wasn't the prettiest, but aesthetic qualities aside, we accomplished just what we wanted to.  We came out of this nasty little four-game New Year's stretch with a .500 record and ended the roughest part of our schedule for the season at 21-14, 7 games above .500.  More on that later.  For now...

Boxscore

General Observations

As the Schonz used to say, this game was a tale of two halves.  The first half was brutal.  And by brutal I mean awful.  And by awful I mean "really not very good".  The main culprit was our zone defense.  Mind you, zone was EXACTLY the right call against the Pistons with Rip Hamilton and Rasheed Wallace out.  That's at least 50% of the Pistons' jump-shooting power and about 90% of their three-point shooting out of the game.  Plugging the middle was the order of the day.  The thing is, you're not supposed to plug it with a colander.  There are a couple reasons to throw up a zone.  First you want to collapse on penetration, making sure that the key stays guarded by a big man who is right there to help should anybody get through.  Second you want to force shots from the diagonals, cutting off direct looks from the baseline especially.  The Blazers' zone didn't do EITHER.  Drivers were getting through left and right and when they did the rotation was late getting over.  The Pistons got cheap looks at the rim in the halfcourt.  Can anybody tell me what in the world Greg Oden would be doing out near the three point line in a zone?  It happened.  Late, out of position, not helping each other, not communicating...we might as well have been playing with our arms tied behind our backs.  And on the rare occasions we stopped penetration Detroit simply kicked out for straight-on looks.  We provided less resistance than a porn star's panties.  We might as well have served them tea and crumpets every time they drove.  "Spot of tea, guv'ner?  No?  You'll just be headed right to the basket then?  Jolly good.  Carry on!"

You know it's not going well when Rasheed and Rip are out, Allen Iverson doesn't have to lift a finger, and you're still down double digits.

On top of that our offense was strictly halfcourt, usually one-on-one, and was only producing jumpers.  That's generally a recipe for disaster.

But wait...there's more.  Even though we couldn't prosecute any of the advantages of a zone with that lousy execution we still fell prey to its weaknesses, chief among them being a wholesale abdication of rebounding responsibility.  The Pistons grabbed 11 offensive rebounds tonight.  How bad was it?  We made Kwame Brown look like a #1 overall pick out there in the first two periods.  That's just wrong.

Thankfully we forced a couple of Detroit turnovers right at the tail end of the second quarter and converted them into 5 quick points, leaving us down 7 at the break instead of 12.

Then the game turned.

First off we went man-to-man instead of zone.  Second we forced even more turnovers which, combined with the running skills of Sergio Rodriguez, Jerryd Bayless, and Lamarcus Aldridge, allowed us to force the pace up to where it should have been in the first place.  As free passes gave way to lock-downs, jumpers gave way to fast break layups and penetration, and their offensive rebounds gave way to our defensive rebounds, lo and behold...we caught up.

At that point it was a dogfight to the finish.  It was Tayshaun Prince (who had an amazing night) and Allen Iverson plus a little Antonio McDyess against whoever Nate could drag out of the toybox in the absence of Brandon Roy.  Sergio, Bayless, Fernandez, Lamarcus, Travis...everybody did their part.  It came down to a possession-versus-possession standoff and our Travis Outlaw ended up trumping their Prince and Iverson.

First half, horrible.  Second half, brilliant.  Net difference?  +1 point.  But that's enough for the "W".

We ended up letting the Pistons shoot 50%, get up 6 more shots than we did, and obliterate us on the boards 40-28...all of which were disasters given who they fielded.  We ended up getting 18 points to their 6 from the three-point line and 14 points to their 9 at the charity stripe.  That made the difference in the game.

Individual Observations

Lamarcus Aldridge had a fine offensive night, hitting 11-21 for 26 points.  (Obviously we needed every one.)  His offense was jumper-heavy in the halfcourt but that's usual.  He keyed the heart of the comeback by outrunning the defense down the court.  He also got some closer-in looks in the halfcourt in the second half.  He looked lost on the boards but with the state of the defense tonight that wasn't surprising.  Everybody looked lost.  He got to the foul line 7 times which was important, even though he only made 4 of them.

I thought Rudy Fernandez had a very good game tonight.  He shot 5-10 for 13 points, hitting all 3 threes he attempted.  More importantly he played a smarter, more controlled defensive game.  He had a couple of blocks plus the key defensive rebound of the game...one he ripped from the Pistons' hands to avoid disaster with 20 seconds left and Detroit up 1 still.  Had he not made the effort Travis doesn't get the chance for that game winner.  Overall he picked his spots, looking a lot more like Rudy Fernandez than somebody who's trying to take over for Brandon Roy.  It worked.

Travis Outlaw couldn't have stopped Tayshaun Prince with 6 yards of chain, 2 padlocks, and a shotgun tonight but he shot 6-10 and scored 14 points.  His scoring was timely as well.  He helped keep us within shouting distance in the first half and he got legitimately hot down the stretch.  He hit the game winner on an isolation play called for him.  Here's a truth about Travis:  He'll make you pull your hair out, elicit screams at your TV, and be the subject of 92 trade posts.  But when all's said and done, even if he's sat out most of the game, if it comes down to one shot at the end of Game 7 of the NBA Finals he'll still be on the short list of people considered to take it.  This is the pain and glory of Travis Outlaw.

Steve Blake also had major defensive problems tonight.  At times he looked like his sneakers were laced together.  However he gets credit along with Joel Przybilla for forcing Allen Iverson into a tough shot to try and win the game in the last possession.  He also gets credit for his 2-2 three-point shooting, his 10 points, and his 10 assists.  At times he looked like Sergio out there breaking up the defense with his passing.

Speaking of Sergio, he struggled early but came on in the second half to change the game.  One of the most basic decisions for any penetrator is pass or shoot.  Sergio makes this look like calculus sometimes.  He'll make you bang your head against the couch when he makes the wrong decision multiple times in a row.  (Tonight it was to the point that the Detroit commentators remarked on it.)  On the other hand when it works that penetration and passing is spectacular and irreplaceable.  We needed to push against Detroit tonight and Sergio helped us do that.  4 points, 3 rebounds, 2 turnovers, 1 assist in 15 minutes.

Jerryd Bayless looked comfortable in his own shoes for the first time this season tonight.  He pressed less and let the game come to him more.  He played some quality minutes during the third-quarter comeback, helping Sergio push the ball and making a couple of timely steals.  He ended up 2-6, 4-4 from the free throw line (easily more free throws per minute than anyone else on the team tonight), for 8 points, 2 assists, and 2 steals.

The Pistons decided they wanted Joel Przybilla to beat them from the free throw line tonight if he was going to touch the ball.  This seriously hampered his offense.  He ended up with 2 points on 2-6 shooting from the foul line.  He got his revenge with 7 rebounds and 2 steals, plus he punked up Kwame Brown a little bit, reminding him that he wasn't really a first overall pick...or at least not one that anybody wanted to remember.  It worked.

Nicolas Batum had 3 rebounds, hit a 3-pointer, and collected an assist in 20 minutes.  Let's hope he was taking notes on Tayshaun Prince's game tonight.  Someday, my son...

Greg Oden collected 4 fouls in 13 minutes and was crazy weird about where he put himself defensively.  This wasn't one of his big hustle games.  He did have a couple of nice back-down post moves.  He ended up 2-3 for 4 points.  He only had 1 rebound, which was really not cool.

Channing Frye played more that twice as well as Darius Miles tonight.  He played for 4 minutes and he managed not to register all zeros in the boxscore.  He missed one shot to post a "1" in there.

Final Thoughts

Thus ends the Miserable Schedule of DOOOOOOM ^TM.  Let's hope we never, EVER have to go through a 2+ month stretch like that again.  Serious, SERIOUS props to the Blazers for coming out of it 7 above .500.  If they can manage to keep their wits, get Roy healthy, and not relax and take teams for granted we should see some nice win totals over the next couple of months.  That's not to say even the next game is an automatic win.  It's not and the rest of them aren't either.  But on balance, on average, the Blazers should be able to win a lot more games than they lose in the next 90 days.  We have a good shot at heading into the last month of the season in double-digits above .500 territory.

Often when I feel exhausted or like quitting in the second half of workouts I will think back about all of the energy I put into just getting to that point.  I ask myself whether I really want to waste all the agony I went through at the 5-minute mark or the 18-minute mark by slipping or giving up at the 30-minute mark.  Let's hope the Blazers employ a similar focus.  They fought really, really hard to earn these wins.  Let's not let a few streaks of inattention give them right back to the league.

It'll be a hard fight, but a winnable one.  The major obstacle for the team is simply themselves.  The Pistons' broadcast put some interesting graphics up when introducing our players.  Instead of giving stats or listing age they put up years of experience in the league.  That was an eye-opener.  You think of Lamarcus Aldridge as one of our veterans, yet he's only been in the league three years including this one.  Total our starting lineup even with Roy in there and you come up with 14 years of experience overall.  Without Roy it's only 12 years of experience.  And 6 of those belong to Steve Blake.  Many teams field a single player who equals those numbers.  Every other playoff contender in the West obliterates them.  Then again, the Blazers have been playing beyond their years the entire season.  Why should it stop now?  Let's hope it doesn't.

Check out the Jersey Contest results from this game and enter the next one here

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

Well, our zone is leakier than a 10-cent umbrella and we're taking shots like we belong in a Wild West show but we're not out of it.  What will happen in the second half?  Continue the discussion here.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

This is a good team.  We are a good team, though perhaps not as good without Brandon Roy.  How will it turn out?  A win tonight would be nice.  At least one of the next two is mandatory if we are to avoid an official losing streak...our first of the year.

Register all of your game-related thoughts here!

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

Edit:  I don't usually backseat coach in-game but I'm making an exception.  No Rip and no Rasheed tonight means one thing:  Pack the middle.  Pack the middle.  Pack the middle.  Period.  End of story.  Any driver that isn't met by at least two Blazers means we aren't doing our job.

A Look at the Pistons

The Detroit Pistons roll into town having won 7 in a row and 10 of their last 12.  Granted the opposition hasn't exactly been murderer's row.  More like mis-sorting your recycling row.  (Naughty, but not quite as intimidating.)  Nevertheless, gunning for a perfect record through any given 10% slice of the season is not too shabby.

You know most of the main Detroit names already:  Rasheed, Prince, Rip, McDyess, and of course now Allen Iverson.  A quick look at the 21-11 record will tell you that AI hasn't had too much trouble assimilating.  He leads them in scoring at 18.2 ppg but this new, improved Iverson now comes with 25% less shooting.  The other big names are still getting their attempts and this remains a fairly unselfish team.  Five different players have led the team in scoring in one game or another this year.  Four of them we've mentioned (everyone but McDyess so far).  The fifth is point guard Rodney Stuckey.  He's had an amazing 15-day stretch, leading the Pistons in scoring in 5 of their last 8 games including a 38-point pasting laid on the Sacramento Kings and a 40-point hurt put on the Chicago Bulls.  That's not nice.  And it's not a fluke.  My man Rodney is shooting 47% for the season overall...stellar for a guard.

This brings up a serious issue for the Blazers tonight.  Detroit is stacked at their small positions.  Stuckey is destroying everybody at point.  Iverson starts at off-guard with Rip Hamilton backing him up.  Tayshaun Prince still plays small forward.  The Blazers have one real defender among their smalls.  It's going to be interesting seeing Batum trying to stop all of those guys in his 18 minutes of playing time.

Though the Pistons aren't as intimidating as they were in their championship years they still shoot and defend well.  Their bigs can draw you outside, making it hard to help on penetration.  Rasheed Wallace plays center for them and he's their only volume three-point shooter who actually makes them.  They're careful with the ball and not prone to mistakes.  If they have weaknesses besides their three-point production they are mediocre rebounding and a lack of fouls drawn.  They're not horrible but they can easily be beat in these areas.  This makes it hard for them to score points most nights despite their array of offensive players.  This is an area the Blazers could exploit.

Keys to the Game

1.  The first and biggest question is what to do with those guards.  Any of them individually could make this a long night for Portland.  Together they're a grim crew to face.  The Blazers might have to live with Wallace's shooting and leave a big man down low to help watch the lane.  Rasheed doesn't like to dominate games anyway.  The help defense is going to have to be alert, quick, and effective tonight.

2.  Another reason to have the bigs stay home is that we'll benefit from a large rebounding edge.  The Pistons aren't afraid to shoot jumpers.  When those are off rebounds come fast and furious.  But we can't just rely on Aldridge and Oden.  Our small forwards and guards have GOT to keep their counterparts off of the boards.  This isn't a great offensive rebounding team.  Please don't make them into one!

3.  We need to quicken the pace on Detroit.  They can win fast or slow, but if we're on the run after long misses they might have a hard time keeping up on the scoreboard.  The best chance for a Portland win would be a free-for-all scorefest.

4.  This may not be the game for Greg Oden.  There's a possibility he could mow over everybody in the paint but more likely he'll be picking up fouls and struggling to keep up with his man.   This could be the game for Channing Frye.

5.  If things are going well we should have a large points in the paint advantage tonight.

Final Thoughts

You tired of losing?  I am.  It's a mark of how far we've come that a 2-game losing streak feels like an eternity.  How about alleviating that?

Enter the Jersey Contest form for tonight's game here.

There's been a lot of hand-wringing going on since Darius Miles played his first game for the Memphis Grizzlies Sunday night.  The angst surrounding the Darius Watch is almost palpable.

Quick question:  Why?

Even if it goes the worst possible direction the Darius Miles situation is a disaster for the Blazers like Pabst Blue Ribbon is a full-bodied beer...like a velvet Elvis is chic décor...like Screech and John Bobbitt are top-notch porn stars.

Of course it would be better for the Blazers overall if Darius didn't play 10 games this year.  But even if he plays those games (and that's a big "if"), his salary returning to the cap won't stop the Blazers from doing anything truly vital in their master plan.

Let's go over the situation again.

1.  Memphis or somebody else has to sign him in order to make this work.

The Grizzlies have until tomorrow (edit:  or Saturday, whichever...it's SOON) to guarantee Miles' contract for the rest of the year.  Right now he's on a non-guaranteed deal which gives them no further obligation to him.  As it stands he's not signed past this week.  If they don't think he can play they're not going to keep him.

Sunday's earth-shaking outing consisted of Miles playing 2 minutes and registering zero marks in the stat line.  None.  This isn't confidence-inspiring material.  By all accounts he was moving slowly.  That's not something you want out of an athletic small forward.  The situation isn't looking great for Darius.

If Miles is released he could be signed to 10-day contracts still.  No team can sign him to more than two consecutive 10-days without paying his salary for the rest of the year, just as the Grizzlies would have to do if they kept him.  In order for those consecutive 10-days to hurt Portland not only would Darius have to be signed to them, he'd have to actually play.  9 games in 20 days doesn't sound like much but unless he's signed during a brutal part of the schedule that's playing in pretty much every game for the entire 20-day stretch.  This for a guy brand-new to the team. 

Neither the Grizzlies scenario nor the 10-day scenario are impossible, but there's no reason to speculate either will happen until one or the other actually does.

2.  The Blazers aren't fatally crippled even if Miles' salary goes back on the cap.

As a quick look at Storyteller's fine site will tell you, the Blazers don't just have the potential to be under the cap next year, they have the potential to be WAAAYYYY under the cap.

The players the Blazers are committed to contractually--Roy, Aldridge, Oden, Przybilla, Webster, Bayless, Fernandez, Batum, and Rodriguez--total around $32.3 million in salary next year.  If the salary cap stays relatively even (most of the time it goes up, but we'll be conservative) it will be around $59 million.  Even tacking on $1.5 million or so for a first-round pick leaves the Blazers the option to be $25 million below the salary cap.  Again, this is a conservative estimate.

Some of that $25 million undoubtedly will be used to retain players we already have.  Here are the costs:

Steve Blake--  $4 million

Travis Outlaw-- $3.6 million

Channing Frye-- $12.9 million cap hold until he re-signs, then whatever he signs for (likely $4.3 million)

Ike Diogu--  $12 million cap hold until he re-signs, then whatever he signs for (likely $3.9 million) 

You can treat that list like the appetizer menu.  If you want a Blake to go with your main course you can certainly afford him.  You can afford a Blake and Outlaw or a Blake and Frye too and still have plenty left in your budget.  Obviously the Blazers are not going to let those cap holds last for long.  They'll either re-sign the players in question, trade them, or cut them.

The point is, the Blazers could look at retaining a couple of those players and still have $18 million to play with.

Darius Miles' salary for 2009-10 is $9 million.  Yes, that cuts the cap room in half.  But that doesn't prevent the Blazers from pursuing any option they desire.

If the Blazers wanted to spend $16-18 million on one guy, which is the scenario the Miles contract would make most difficult, you have got to figure that they're banking on that guy being a superstar.  Without the Miles contract on the cap you could sign that superstar free and easy.  With the Miles contract you have to make a simple decision:  is that superstar worth cutting a couple of your other players like Blake and Outlaw?  If you're spending that kind of money the answer had better be yes.  In that case, problem solved.  The resolution will be more painful than it would have otherwise been but Miles wouldn't have stopped the move.

The superstar signing scenario is among the least likely possibilities, however.  Unless the Blazers are thinking about Allen Iverson (gack!) there just aren't that many of them available on the free agent market this summer.  If Portland wants a big-name, big-salary player they're probably going to have to trade for him.  In that case the Miles contract won't hurt much.  Almost no team in the league is going to dump a legitimate talent for $18 million in cap space alone.  They're going to want players in return.  Those players' salaries are going to add up to enough that $9 million in cap space is just about as good as $18 million.  $9 million will bridge just about any trade gap you can name.  You might have to throw in one more player to make the numbers work, but if you're getting Your Guy that's not going to hurt much.

If you're not talking superstars at all, but just good players, then $9 million with raises is going to be enough to sign anyone you want.  There's a little-talked-about truism about NBA salaries I'll share with you.  Once off of their rookie scales superstars make $14 million and up.  Good role players make $9 million and below.  You know who falls in that $9-13 million range?  Overpaid B+ players.  There are a couple exceptions, but for the most part it's true.  You don't want those guys and you don't want to be paying those guys their expensive tweener salaries.  If you're not looking at $15 million, $8-9 will more than do.

Obviously this is even more so if you're talking about trading for players making $9 million or less instead of signing them outright.  Miles won't hurt those prospects at all.  Kevin Pritchard can indulge every kid-in-the-candy-store fantasy he ever had with that much money available.

3.  The Blazers still have Raef LaFrentz's contract

Portland will know soon if the Grizzlies are keeping Miles.  It should be painfully obvious by next month's trade deadline whether he's capable of playing enough 2-minute shifts to get reinstated on our cap.  With Raef LaFrentz's $12.7 million expiring contract available the Blazers don't have to wait until this summer for $9 million in wiggle room to make trades.  They have 141% of that figure available right now, Miles or no Miles.

Keep in mind too, whether it's $12.7 million for the next six weeks or $9 million this summer that space pairs beautifully with the young, incredibly cheap players we have to trade with.  Now or later it's a powerful combination.  This is the avenue Portland is most likely to take advantage of and it's the avenue least affected by the Miles situation.

4.  The Blazers have a plan.

Until this year nobody knew that Darius Miles would accept medical retirement.  Up until the minute he signed the papers the Blazers were planning on getting the job done with his contract still counting against them.  I remember thinking when the news was announced, "This is really, really fortunate for us."  But championships are not built on fortune alone.   The retirement was a nice bonus, not the cornerstone of Portland's future.   If Kevin Pritchard and company didn't have a plan for this exact situation I'll eat my old Rasheed Wallace jersey unsalted.  If nothing else they just have to return to their old pre-retirement plan.  Don't tell me the next six months weren't circled on their calendars long before Miles left.

Add it all up and this 10- (now 9-) game countdown is an inconvenience, nothing more.  Portland fans don't have to sweat it.  Even if the worst happens all the options available before Miles' salary returns will still be available after.  At worst we'll have to take an extra step to execute them.  Those steps have never been an issue for our decision-makers.

Case closed.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

Boxscore

Unfortunately I can't recap this game completely because for some reason my brand new Tivo didn't like the recording.  It started and stopped at exactly the same moment.  My guess is it said, "Power on.  Now what are we recording tonight?  Ewwwww!  L*kers?!?  Forget that.  I don't do that." Then it shut right back off.  They're making those machines smarter and smarter nowadays, and apparently with better taste.  Fortunately I caught the error at halftime and got to see the second half (or perhaps unfortunately considering the first half was clearly a better one for us) so all of my observations are from that stretch.  Since I categorically refuse to recap a game I haven't seen just using stats, the observations are going to be more limited in scope.

General Observations

We got killed in that third quarter, which is typical when going up against good teams when you've played them well early on.  They come out of the half ready to prove the game is theirs.  If only the evidence hadn't been so convincing...

We had problems with turnovers and 24-second violations.  A big part of that was the L*ker defense, but we also had no meaningful penetration which left us up the creek when trying to counter that defense.  Basically we ended up hoisting jumpers to the exclusion of everything else throughout the half.  We had one of the most amazing-funny-horrific possessions I can ever remember seeing with around 9:30 left in the fourth quarter.  We ended up with 5 shots, getting an offensive rebound after the first 4 misses.  But the clincher to this quintuple possession was that we launched a three on every...single...attempt.  4 missed threes, one make at the end.  And we shot threes on the next two trips down the court as well, totaling 7 in a row.  That typified the offense.  Mind you, they weren't bad threes.  We were open.  But you can't keep up with the L*kers while firing jump shots.  The law of averages is going to catch up to you.

Also of note:  the Blazers have a lot of players who do limited things very well on offense.  Lamarcus is going to face up or turn around but not penetrate.  Travis is going to jab step and charge to the side then pull up but not penetrate either.  Rudy will launch a three or a step-back jumper but won't score off the dribble.  Sergio will penetrate off the dribble but won't get a shot up.  Blake is a spot-up shooter.  Oden will back you down and try the hook.  The L*kers had all of that scouted and knew what to do against each opponent.  This is where Brandon Roy and his multi-threat offense become important.  He breaks down the opponent and draws attention, leaving the other players free to play to their strengths when the defense is occupied.  We had no Brandon tonight, nor anything close.

Our defensive effort was just as sketchy.  Kobe Bryant could have scored 50 tonight had he wanted.  Every time he touched the ball he got a good look with ease.  Unlike us, the L*kers were getting penetration which meant their jumpers came off of the dish...wide open with time to shoot.  Our big men had a heck of a time dealing with Pau Gasol as well.  Nobody could stop him.  Oden and Pryzbilla were too slow, Lamarcus too busy, and everyone else too short.

The long and short of it was, we got spanked by a really good team.  It was their game to win and they took it.  So be it...on to the Pistons.

Individual Observations

Again, keep in mind these are incomplete, based only on the part of the game I saw.

Lamarcus Aldridge looked good on offense.  He took the shots the L*kers gave him and didn't force it.  I just wish his offensive game would generate more pressure on the defense and more fouls instead of just points.  He's like a technically skilled boxer who can land a bunch of punches and win by decision but doesn't have knockout power.  You can win against decent fighters like that but when you come up against somebody who can take a punch the effectiveness goes way down.  Also there are just too many moments on defense when Lamarcus doesn't look ready.  I guess what I'm saying is that he had a great game but not a superstar-level game that carried us beyond ourselves to the win (or close to the win).

Nicolas Batum looked active and confident.  He's the first player I noticed in the game.  I love it when he gets his energy on.  I want to see more penetration out of him on offense even though the Blazer small forward slot is basically penciled in for deep shots.  I did cheat and look at the boxscore to see how he did and it appears he had an amazing game...hitting every shot he took from anywhere, scoring 17, and notching 5 rebounds, 4 assists, and a steal.

Greg Oden looked OK.  Andrew Bynum didn't look like he did much, so that's a notch in Oden's belt.  We just didn't go to the big guy much.  We drew some fouls when we did.

Steve Blake was missing open shots like crazy which is a sure sign that the Blazers are going to lose.  He fixed it up near the end of the game, but too late.  I'll remark again how much we need him.

The L*kers played Sergio for the dribble penetration dish and it hurt.

Rudy had a spotty shooting night but hustled around the court, which is good.  He's playing that Euro-League in-between defense though and we're losing points off of it every night.  Classic example:  end of third quarter, L*kers have the last possession, Kobe is up top with the ball and Rudy is on the left wing watching Vladimir Radmanovic.  Kobe starts to drive and Rudy leaves Radmanovic to dive down in the lane.  Kobe zips an easy pass to Vlad who launches an effortless three which goes straight in.  You can't even count the number of no-no's on that play.  Radmanovic is a 45% three-point shooter.  Shooting deep is all he does.  There was nobody else out there to guard him...it was Rudy's assignment as he was the only one on that wing.  He left the entire side of the floor unguarded to become the third or fourth Blazer in the lane, as Kobe was defended and a big man was waiting deep.  Plus since he was coming into the lane down the baseline he was way too deep to cut off the passing angle, let alone do anything had Kobe driven the ball all the way.  Bryant would have been 90 feet in the air and all Rudy would have accomplished was giving up an and-one.  Under the best of circumstances he would have been redundant.  We saw the worst of circumstances...an easy three points for the L*kers.  And that wasn't the only example tonight.  This kind of thing wasn't as apparent when he was playing against opposing second units but it's glaring now.  Basically Rudy is getting us extra points and possessions with his hustle and then giving them back again.  The net effect is that his contribution tends far more towards neutral than his skill and energy warrant.  This is wholly preventable but he won't become a great player, or even a good full-time player, until he shuts off that leak.

Jerryd Bayless was also active and I was impressed by his hard-nosed play.  He need to relax enough to make a shot though.  The basketball is still round.  The hoop is still proportionally bigger than the ball.  Just put it in.

Travis Outlaw just wasn't much help from what I could see.  This was one of his poorer games in a while.  A long while.

Final Thoughts

Roy...back soon?

Check out the Jersey Contest scores and enter the Detroit game here.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

Chat about the second half here.  Enjoy!

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

Let's see how the boys in red and black fare tonight.  Register all of your game-related thoughts here.  Enjoy the game!

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

Once again into the breach.  We've got our bayonets fixed, our infantry rifles sighted in, our back-up sidearms at our belt, and we're about to go up against a tank of monstrous proportions.

A Look at the L*kers

Unless you've been living in a Blazers-only cave for the whole season (hey...some of us like our little nooks, especially when they have ancient Drexler and Walton petroglyphs on the walls) or have avoided any publicity about them on general principle, you already know that the L*kers are one of two legitimately super-elite teams in the league.  They are every bit as good as the Celtics in just as many ways.  The two teams shade in inverted fashion.  The Celtics are an overwhelming defensive team whose offense is so good that you have almost no hope of defending them in like fashion.  The L*kers are an overwhelming offensive team whose defense is so good that you have almost no hope of scoring alongside them.  It's like asking whether you prefer to get beheaded with a guillotine or a huge axe.  Couldn't we just play the Timberwolves again instead?  That's like being beheaded with a Nerf bat.

Since the axe is going to fall, you might as well know that its sharpest edge is the number of field goal attempts L.A. takes and the high percentage they shoot.  There's a line in this league where shots are maximized without having to employ gimmicks that compromise your defense and/or rebounding.  The L*kers are just about as close to that line as you can get without going over it.  They shoot a lot, they hit a lot.  The stout handle on that axe--and the camel-breaking straw that spells most teams' doom--is their great offensive rebounding.  You can count the teams better in that category on less than one hand.  (Portland is among them.)  Oh, and if that isn't enough they're also 4^th in the league in both free throws attempted and made. That offensive combination is enough to overcome your average team and most of your better-than-average ones as well.  At 26-5 that's just what the L*kers have been doing. 

On the other end the L*kers manage to play good percentage defense while forcing turnovers...no mean feat as the legion of teams that can only do one or the other demonstrate.  They're average defensive rebounders, which is good enough.  They have some shot-blocking ability as well, mostly from Andrew Bynum.

Honestly, it's hard to find things the L*kers don't do well, and when you do it's like finding a mole on Jessica Alba's shoulder.  Ummmm...so what?  They allow latitude to opposing guards to shoot and pass, preferring to bar the middle.  They'll allow lesser teams to play with them or get back in the game.  Complacency is pretty much their biggest enemy.

You should know enough about Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, and Andrew Bynum by now not to need much of a primer on them.  Luke Walton has been playing token minutes as the starting small forward and the venerable Derek Fisher has been playing big minutes as the starting point guard.  Trevor Ariza has started fulfilling some of his early-career promise by giving them a huge lift off the bench at small forward.  Lamar Odom is another key bench guy who always gives the Blazers trouble.  Jordan Farmar, Vladimir Radmanovic, and Sasha Vujacic round out the main rotation.  Of the lesser lights Fisher and Ariza have been having the best seasons, though you can't sleep on Odom and you can't let Radmanovic or Vujacic have open shots.

Keys to the Game

Honestly there aren't any keys that are reasonably going to turn a defeat into a victory, especially without Brandon Roy playing.  The Blazers just have to hope that the L*kers have an off-night and that we can provide more energy and drive.  L.A. has lost exactly one game at home this season, a 106-95 defeat at the hands of the Pistons back on November 14^th.  They just don't back down on their home turf.  Nevertheless, if we are to have any chance some of the following will be important.

1.  Hustle always helps underdogs pull through.  We have to want it more and we have to play hard all game.  The beginning and ending of quarters are particularly important.  You can be 2 minutes out from halftime and cruising but if you let up L.A. will paste 10 points on you in that 2 minute span.  Focus, attention, and energy are the order of the evening.

2.  I don't see any way we win this game without dominating efforts from Lamarcus Aldridge and Greg Oden.  We need points, rebounds, and defense.  If this is just the Kobe show maybe we have a shot.  If Kobe, Gasol, and Bynum are all open on the offensive end and don't have to work defensively you can just pencil in the blowout loss now.

3.  We must, must, MUST find a way to limit the L*kers offensive rebounds.  It's bad enough having to defend them once each trip.  Giving up a ton of second-chance points is going to put the game out of reach.

4.  Rudy Fernandez has to figure out a way to make Kobe work.  I'm not expecting a bad offensive outing for Bryant.  I just want him to work up a sweat and put up a lot of shots to get his 32 points.

5.  Since we're calling out individual players here, the not-so-hidden offensive spark may be Travis Outlaw.  If he came out with a 20+ point game all of a sudden the point deficit doesn't look so bad.

Final Thoughts

With Roy out this game doesn't have quite the luster of the normal Portland-L.A. contest.  I'm just hoping the Blazers play hard and don't get obliterated...or at least don't get obliterated until really late in the game.

Check out the L.A. view with our old friends at ForumBlueandGold.

You can enter the Jersey Contest form for this game here.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)