DaBolts is answering questions here and shake n bake and I have some Colts questions answered over at Bolts From The Blue. Based on those posts, some healthy stats at FO, and a few observations, I give you this week's scouting report on the Chargers; a team that has beaten the Colts three straight times.

Vincent Jackson is very under-rated Photo: Chargers.com

Chargers Offense

Statistically, the Chargers offense is one of the best in football. DVOA has them ranked #8 overall in the league, and that ranking is propped up by their outstanding passing attack. The Chargers are the second ranked passing attack in football behind only the Cardinals. Gone are the knocks that their WR corps is garbage and all the passes go to TE Antonio Gates (aka, Mr. Phase Transition). Today, the Chargers have one of the best WRs corps in football, one that rivals the Colts. Vincent Jackson might be the most under-rated WR in football, currently ranked #8 in efficiency at FO, two spots below Reggie Wayne. The one knock against Jackson is that his catch rate is very low. 54% for an NFL WR is not good. For comparisons sake, we all remember Gregggg Dingleberry taking shots at Marvin Harrison for dropping passes. Marvin's catch rate this year is 51%, merely 3% points lower than Jackson's. But Jackson does make timely catches on big downs, as FO's stats show. I've also watched some Chargers games this year, and Jackson has a knack for getting open on key third downs. Chris Chambers is also a dangerous weapon, and one that really bit the Colts in the playoffs last year. If anything, the one time #1 passing priority (Gates) has fallen to Rivers' third or fourth option.

While the passing game has bloomed, it is the running game that is really holding the Chargers down. To put it bluntly, the Chargers have one of the worst rushing offenses in football despite having LaDanian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles. They are ranked 27th in the league. If that ranking were, say, 14th or so, the Chargers would have the #1 offense in football (and probably two or three more wins). For weeks, we've heard how bad the Colts rushing offense is, currently ranked 32nd in the entire league using traditional NFL stats (average 77 rushing yards a game). But using FO's stats, the Colts are ranked 14th while the Chargers are ranked 27th. A big eye-opener is the Chargers only have 5 total rushing TDs this year.

5. That's just, wow.

This means the Bolts have resorted to throwing the ball more in the red zone. They have 21 TDs through the air. This takes SD away from what they are built to do at their core: Run the ball and play defense. Their inability to control games with the running game has allowed teams like Denver, New Orleans, and Buffalo to score points and force SD into near-shoot situations (situations SD is not built to win in). 

So, why has the running game struggled? Tomlinson's health is one reason. He has not been 100% all season. The loss of Michael Turner to free agency is another reason. If ever there was a time Turner's size and speed were needed in SD, it is now. Turner was also a BIG thorn in the Colts side, beating them on a long TD run in 2005 and on the last drive for a TD in the playoffs last year. This is not a knock on Darren Sproles, who is an electric runner and an amazing kick returner, but Turner is just simply a better RB than Sproles. Turner's loss, Tomlinson's injuries, and a lack of consistent play from SD's fullbacks have hurt the ground game and robbed SD of their offensive identity.

Chargers Defense

When Dwight Freeney went down last year in San Diego on that rainy night in November, the Colts lost much of their pass rush. This season, when Chargers LBer Shawne Merriman was IRed just before the start of the regular season with knee injuries, the Chargers lost their pass rush as well. Since Merriman was shut down, the Chargers defense has been a hollow shell of its former self. This defense used to be feared. Now, it is giving up big plays left and right, barely able to stop even the friggin' Kansas City offense.

So, was it just losing Merriman? DaBolts offers his insight:

The loss of Merriman affected the defense much more than expected. With him out some other players were really exposed as not being as good as they looked. Matt Wilhelm at MLB has been awful, Clinton Hart at safety has played poorly and the defensive line just has not performed this year. It didn’t help that Stephen Cooper was out four games on suspension for ephedra at the start of the season. Ted Cottrell really didn’t adjust his scheme to Merriman’s absence; and teams that had the ball at the end of the game within one score could always move the ball and chew the clock. Tight ends in particular really eat this defense up; I’m not looking forward to seeing Clark this Sunday. Lastly the defense hasn’t been ball hawking the way the

Ron Rivera is doing a great job with the Chargers defense. Photo: Chargers.com

Just like with any defense in the modern NFL, if you do not have a pass rush, it will expose the rest of your D. Their are no shutdown corners anymore in this league. Coverage can only last so long before a pro league caliber QB will find the open man and make a key throw. Pressure on the QB is THE most important element to any defense, more important than stopping the run. Without it, teams will throw at will, score on you, and force you to play catch-up. And SD's defense is doing just that to its offense. It ranks 29th in defensive efficiency, bad against the run (26th) and pass (25th). 

As DaBolts said, injuries and inconsistency have hurt this unit (just like the Colts). The Chargers fired their defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell mid-season and replaced him with LBers coach Ron Rivera, who coached Chicago's Tampa 2-style defense to a Super Bowl in 2006. Now, he is coaching a 3-4 defense, and having them play better. Since Rivera took over the defense, the Chargers have given up an average of 15 ppg. Why Rivera is not a head coach, I don't know. With Rivera coaching the D, the Colts should expect a better unit, especially in the tackling department. They have played more disciplined and within themselves, and at home they should have a comfort zone. The defense Indy will face will be different than the one most other teams have faced. Rivera is very familiar with Manning and the Colts offense, having faced their might in Super Bowl 41.

Special Teams

This unit is probably the biggest strength of the team. They are ranked 10th in the league, anchored by a strong return game with Darren Sproles as the main threat. Sproles torched the Colts special teams last year during the regular season. SD has has a very strong punt return game, able to get their offense good field position. Their punt coverage units might be a bit of a weakness, but they do the job much the same way the Colts have done all year.

K Nate Kaeding is a source of debate. He has an excellent FG accuracy percentage, but Kaeding has a Vanderjagt-like reputation for missing big kicks in big games. He missed important kicks in SD's 2004 and 2006 playoff loses. But, on the whole, his accuracy is very good and his kickoffs are excellent.

Coaching

Norv Turner is certainly on the hot seat, no matter what the Chargers owner is saying. When Ted Cottrell was fired, there was a not-to-subtle message to Turner, who was hired at the same time Cottrell was. Turner has done a fine job maturing Philip Rivers into a true, Pro Bowl caliber QB, but the longtime knock on Turner was always that he did not inspire players. That weakness is showing up this season as Turner has been unable to overcome SD's injuries to get his team playing consistently.

Turner does have a strong group of assistants, led by Rivera. He also has strong veterans on his team. While Turner is an outstanding offensive game planner, his lack of knowledge on defense and his inability to inspire players have hurt the Chargers this year.

Conclusion

This team has a potent passing attack, improving defense, and a devastating return game. They also have a knack for beating the Colts, having won three in a row over them. They've been able to beat them in the past with impressive passing numbers and special teams. Historically, the Colts have done a great job controlling Tomlinson. It was always Michael Turner that killed Indy. With Turner gone, Sproles will see more looks on offense, especially on screens and draws.

San Diego is in desperation mode. They lose this game, their season is, essentially, over. They are playing at home against a team they have confidence against. Key to beating SD is pass rush. When Rivers is pressured, the team has a knack for disintegrating. Just like the Pittsburgh game, this one will be physical and hard fought. Both teams need the win and are willing to do whatever it takes to get it.

Best served cold?

Last year's game in San Diego was one of the greatest games Peyton Manning has ever played. I say that with my chest puffed out, my head high, and my knuckles cracked in anticipation of some blowhard who throws selective stats in my face in a pathetic attempt to debunk my opinion.

The game in SD last year is known for Peyton throwing 6 picks and Dwight Freeney breaking his foot. The game was played at night in a dark, brooding rainstorm. It has harsh. It was physical. And the Chargers were damn lucky to win the game.

The Colts played that game with so many key starters hurt it wasn't even funny. Marvin Harrison, Dallas Clark, Raheem Brock, Freddie Keiaho, Tony Ugoh, and Anthony Gonzalez all did not play. Peyton threw passes to receivers like Aaron Moorehead, Craphonso Thorpe, and Bryan Fletcher. All played wretchedly. All are no longer on the Colts. As stated, lost during the game was Dwight Freeney, and his injury was devastating to a Colts team that was primed to win a second consecutive Super Bowl (and had Freeney not gotten hurt, they would have).

But all that is hindsight and in the past. This year, the Chargers and Colts were expected to compete for their division titles. Now, both are struggling to stay in the playoff hunt. Indy is in better shape than SD. The Colts have a 5-2 record in the conference and have won several significant tie breakers, should the season come down to that. The Chargers are 4-6, and one more loss likely ends their chances for the playoffs. Sorry, but 9-7 don't cut it in the AFC.

Some speculate that the Colts have revenge in mind as they venture to San Diego to take on the Chargers. Not only did SD beat Indy in that rain soaked heartbreaker during the regular season, but the beat Indy in the playoffs in the last game ever played at the RCA Dome. In that game, Peyton Manning all but destroyed SD's defense, but the Colts were unable to generate a pass rush on QBs Philip Rivers or (when Rivers got hurt) his replacement Billy Volek. On the Chargers game-winning drive, Volek could have knitted a sweater in the pocket prior to making his reads and throwing the ball. With Freeney gone and Robert Mathis playing on one leg, the Colts had no pass rush.

A Tampa 2 defense with no pass rush is like Corona without the lime.

And darkness covered the land.

Photo: assets.espn.go.com

But revenge and silly things like "pay back" do not motivate the Colts. Should Indy secure a win (something they have done only once in San Diego since Jim Harbaugh and Zack Crockett shocked the football world by beating them in the playoffs back in 1995) they will further secure their playoff position and knock off a potential Wild Card competitor. The task will not be easy, as the Colts once again face a desperate team willing to do anything to stay alive. The Chargers also have Indy's number, beating them 3 of the last 4 times.

Go Colts!

Interesting comment fro jay16 in this FanPost:

I tell you what. As of right now he is 4th or 5th ranked for my MVP. He has some games coming up against some totally weaker foes, if he can demolish the Browns, Lions, Bengals, and pad his numbers to outshine Warner's, and throw in his 4th quarter comebacks this year, hands down, I will throw in the towel, he’s earned it. Right now here is what I have

1.Kurt Warner
2.Eli Manning
3.Clinton Portis
4.Joey Porter
5.Peyton Manning

Good points, but I don't agree. Maybe Jay16 is a bit more unbiased than me (he probably is) but I think they will give the MVP to Peyton Manning this year if he gets the Colts in the playoffs and not Kurt Warner. Interestingly enough, just two weeks ago, we SB Nation writers had Clinton Portis practically locked up as NFL MVP at the mid-season point. Now, he is barely even in the conversation.

The people at the top of the conversation are Peyton Manning and Kurt Warner, and it was nearly ten years ago that a then-unknown Kurt Warner was battling it out with a second year phenom named Peyton Manning. In the time since, both have won Super Bowls, multiple MVPs, and several division titles with their respective teams. Yet, Peyton has clearly proven he is the better QB, and it is this reason why he will likely take home his third MVP this year.

In the fourth quarter of big games, Peyton has been phenomenal

Photo: www.bcsfrenzy.com

Look, I'm not going to knock Warner. FO ranks him as the most efficient QB in the NFL right now. He is completing 70%-friggin-percent of his passes. His team is poised to win their division this Sunday (they won't because they are playing the Giants, but the fact that they can lock up their division in November says something about their success this year). Warner has been the driver of the Cardinals offense, and with WRs like Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin the Cards are able to put up points quickly. This has taken pressure off their defense, which is more solid than good.The other pro in the Kurt for MVP corner is he has played consistently well since Week One, and I think there is merit to the notion that the MVP is for the best player from Week 1 to Week 17, not from Week 8 to 17.

But the plain and simple truth is Peyton Manning is a better QB than Kurt Warner, and he has had to fight through a helluva lot more adversity this season than Warner has to get his name into the MVP consideration.

Peyton started the season hurt, recovering from a staph infection in his knee and surgery to remove his knee's bursa sac. He showed up to the first game of the season thin, out of game shape, and not as mobile as he once was. But, in typical Peyton form, he fought through it. Adding to this is the sheer holy freaking crap difficulty of the Colts schedule. Starting with a healthy Chicago team, going to Minnesota, an 0-2 Jacksonville team, a totally desperate 0-3 Houston team, Green Bay at Lambeau, Tennessee in Nashville, and Baltimore with their foot-to-your-nuts defense.

Ugh.

Contrast this with Warner, who plays in the division that features the hapless Rams, 49ers, and Seahawks. Warner's division opponents have a combined record of 5-28, and Warner has feasted on these teams this year. 4 of Arizona's 6 wins are against the terrible NFC West. And while 2 of Indy's 6 wins are against the 3-7 Texans, I'll argue that the Texans are about better than the garbage that passes for "competition" in the NFC West.

Kurt Warner is having an amazing 2008 season.

Photo: i.a.cnn.net

Where Peyton trails Warner is in the stats. Warner will also help his team win their division. Peyton and the Colts likely will not win the AFC South. But what Manning has done is willed his team to comeback or razor-thin wins despite the statistics. The Minnesota game is one such example. In the game, Manning had a 72 QB rating for that game, throwing 2 INTs and facing a pass rush that knocked him around all game. But Manning's heroics in the 4th quarter, including an outstanding throw to get a key first down to Reggie Wayne, got the Colts in position to win the game on Adam Vinatieri's 48 yard FG. Two weeks later, Manning had another big fourth quarter comeback at the expense of Sage Rosenfels and the Texans.

Peyton then went to Pittsburgh and threw 3 TDs in Indy's first win there in 40 years. Several weeks prior, he shredded Baltimore's outstanding defense.

The case for Manning is not the overall statistics, but how he has performed in the clutch against incredible adversity. With injuries to his offensive line and his running backs, Peyton has had to loft up 380 attempts, exposing him to more hits from defenders. Yet, despite the hits, Peyton Manning has not fumbled. Kurt Warner, a known fumbler, has coughed it up 7 times (almost once a game) and lost 5 of them. Fumbles are not included in standard NFL QB rating. Why, I don't know.

So, when you factor in these other elements (strength of opponents, performance in the clutch, and overall importance to the team) then Peyton Manning is the clear front-runner for MVP. If your focus is simple numbers, then it is Warner. I personally do not think MVP voters are going to give Warner (who has not been relevant since the Rams lost the Super Bowl to the Patriots in 2001) the MVP over Peyton, especially if Peyton closes the season strong and gets Indy into the playoffs.

I realize that Warner winning MVP would be a big boost to the Cardinals who have had very little to cheer about pretty much since they moved to Arizona. But the simple truth is that Warner might not be a Cardinal next year, and sitting on their bench is the first round draft pick of 2006 (Matt Leinart). MVP voters will factor that into their consideration. And when you compare Manning's play under pressure to Warner's, Peyton has the edge. In any case, it is fun and ironic that here we are, nearly ten years later, talking about Peyton and Kurt as MVP candidates.

UPDATE: Great comment from shonuff:

One thing I can’t imagine – If Kurt Warner wins MVP this year, it will be his third, making him only the 2nd player to win 3. Three freakin MVPs! The other, as we all know, is Brett Favre, who is a sure fire first ballot hall of famer. I’m going to go out on a limb here, and say that Kurt Warner is not really even in the discussion for the Hall of Fame at this point. It just seems so strange that a QB who [could win] 3 MVPs isn’t even in the discussion of greatest of all time, and probably not a Hall of Famer.

This is another reason why Warner will not get the MVP this year. He is not a Hall of Famer. He has had three great NFL seasons, and has lost his starting job several times with several teams due to erratic play.

It is time for my annual beatdown of Pete Prisco, and when he writes garbage like this, it is easy to do so:

Can we cancel the rest of the season and just play the Super Bowl now?

It's the Tennessee Titans, the last undefeated team, against the New York Giants, the league's best team.

...

Somewhere there is a team that will use the next six weeks and the playoffs to make a run, timing it just right.

It has happened two of the past three seasons, with the Steelers also winning a title as a wild-card team in 2005.

So while we'd all like to race to put the Titans and Giants in the Super Bowl, and it's almost a lock they'll have the No. 1 seeds in their conferences, history tells us that won't be the case.

That doesn't mean we can't picture it and play it out in our heads.

Gee, thanks, Pete. For the love of God, if there is one thing that really pisses me off it is when NFL "analysts" start crowning the best teams in football in friggin' November. We've seen this time, and time, and time again. And I would have thought that last year would have ended this dumb, obnoxious stuff. Last year this time, everyone and their grandmother said the Patriots were the best team in football. Some called them the best team ever. The problem was they still needed to actually win something, and when it came to winning the most important game of the 2007 season, the Patriots choked. The reality was the NY Giants were the best team of 2007.

The team that wins the Super Bowl is the best team in the NFL, not the team with the best regular season record, the model-looking QB, and the record-setting statistics.

Make no mistake boys and girls, the regular season is only there so teams can better position themselves to win in the playoffs. Teams are not crowned in November. They are not crowned in December. They are crowned in late-January, early-February. And while the Titans and the Giants look great now, that does not mean they will look great in January.

If we are going to be selective as to picking the "best teams" now, why not go back to October, when the Bills were 4-0 and looked better than the Titans. Why not pit them against the Cowboys in the new "selective" Super Bowl played out in Pete's mind. Back in October, it was wall-to-wall Cowboys love with Romo tossing TDs and TO mugging the camera. Fast forward to now, and injuries and spotty QB play have the Bills at 5-5 and the Cowboys at 6-4. Both are struggling to stay in the playoff discussion.

Yes, I know Pete is writing a "wishful thinking" article, and that is why I am testy. I personally do not care who is good in November. It means nothing. I am looking forward to seeing who is good in January, regardless of whether it is the Colts or not. The fact that the NFL playoffs have been so unpredictable the last few years is a big reason why the NFL DESTROYS other leagues during playoff time. Why a writer like Prisco is not embracing this obvious plus with the NFL, I don't know.

Two teams that know the philosphy of "any team can win" in the playoffs are the Giants and Titans themselves. So, this isn't a knock at them. They know what they have to do. This is a knock at Prisco, who seems annoyed that another team could walk in and knock off NY or Tennessee, as if that is some kind of crime or tragedy or something. Forget the fact that neither team has won their respective divisions yet. As we have seen this year, injuries have defined the 2008 season. For the most part, the Giants and Titans have avoided injuries. Heck, the injury Vince Young might be the best thing ever to happen to the Titans. But that doesn't mean injuries could start to take their toll on those two clubs. I'm not saying I want them to start getting hurt (I don't). I'm just saying injuries can take a great team and turn them very mediocre very, very quickly.

So, once again I say screw Pete Prisco. He can go off on his own and daydream about the Giants and Titans. The rest of us will enjoy seeing who the real conference champions are. Those champs may very well be the Giants and Titans, but much of the joy of football is seeing teams earn their accolades. In 2006, everyone was on the Chargers and Ravens nuts, all but dismissing the Patriots and Colts. We knew better. Maybe, back then, Pete had dreams of a Chargers v. Bears Super Bowl.

Hopefully, this season Pete is once again disappointed.