Improving in the Red-Zone

by UNFNOLE on Sep 9, 2009 5:04 PM EDT Comment 19 comments

While debating TBBuc in another post, I started delving into the Red-Zone (Inside the 20) statistics. The Bucs were the 31st best Red-Zone Team. Let's look at the numbers and then why the Bucs have to improve this season.

First, all of these stats come from USAToday.Com. They have some great records of stats which I utilized.

Also, I understand these stats mean nothing this year. New Coaches, New Scheme, New Running Backs, New Quarterback, New Tight End...I get it. Please do not leave a comment saying this.

The Buccaneers were EXCELLENT at getting to the red-zone. In Fact, they tied for 9th with 56 possessions inside the 20. They were TERRIBLE at doing anything with it. They scored a touchdown 39% of the time (31st in the NFL)

Kicker: To start this discussion of positvely, the Kicker had the best red-zone stats. He was 24-24 from within 30 Yards with one missed extra point. Kicking 24 times in the redzone out of 56 possessions is not good.

Running Game: As a TEAM we had 77 carries for 213 with a 2.8 average and 12 touchdowns. Jeff Garcia had the best Running Average on our entire team in the red-zone which would most likely be from broken pass plays.

Passing Game: Jeff Garcia threw 33 times and Brian Griese 21 times inside of the 20 Yard Line. Both were about 47-48% for a whopping total of 8 touchdowns and 1 INT. Earnest Graham also had a 3 yard pass for a touchdown.

Defense: Our defense was at the top of the league (Tied for 2nd) for fewest possessions (33) inside of the redzone. This is excellent. It means that our defense rarely allowed sustained drives. However, we still got scored on quite a bit so it also means that we gave up a lot of big plays. We allowed a td 55% of the time. This is below average and was good for 21st in the NFL. Basically you can assume that if a team sustained a drive against us, we struggled stopping it. A Bend but not Break mentality would probably be in the 40% range.

Why this WILL improve: Kellen Winslow and Derrick Ward. While our TE's accounted for more than half of our Receiving TD's, that doesn't say much when it was only 5. Winslow gives an athletic, big option to hit with less field. TE's are crucial in the Red-Zone. Derrick Ward will also allow for us to bang runs in from short yardage. Something Graham struggled to provide last year.

Why it WONT Improve: The Zone Run is not as conducive to Red-Zone or Short Yardage plays. Run Blitzes and 8-9 men in the box on the goaline muddy up the zone-blocking scheme. I don't have stats on this, but it seems logical. Also Mike Nugent. Nugent doesn't seem to be as good as Bryant was last year. He was only slightly over .500 and could struggle. If he does, he will be fired. A kicker can NOT struggle in the red-zone. Our WR are Antonio Bryant and Michael Clayton still. They combined for 1 TD (Thanks Antonio). They simply were not a threat inside of the Red-Zone.

Why it Must: That's Unacceptable Numbers. The Detroit Lions had a substantially better Red-Zone team than did the Buccaneers. If you are going to get there, you need to capitalize. It is de-moralizing to the players to sustain a drive and then come up with only 3 points. The Bucs are going to face some good defenses, so when they have opportunities they MUST convert.

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Comments

Morris stated that 60% was the success (TD) ratio we were looking for

How many NFL teams had that?

I’ll reserve any other comments until I can dig into your post a bit more

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by Buc Wild on Sep 9, 2009 5:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Fins, Titans and Colts

were the only three. That means we would have to make one heck of a jump in TD percentage. All three did have 6 or more fewer possessions inside of the red-zone though.

"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"

by UNFNOLE on Sep 9, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do you have stats on Caddy

In the last few games that he played last season I know he put it into the endzone. Do you have any statistics that show our scoring % when he was in the game. I know it will be primarily the Raider game and isn’t truly a worthy sample size, but I think he did make an impact last year on this and will again this year.

by miracles83 on Sep 9, 2009 10:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Great Question

His stats were actually very respectable. On 11 Carries he had 46 Yards and 4 touchdowns. So Every time he carried the ball in the red-zone averaged 4.2 Yards and scored 36% of the time. Easily the best on the team outside of Garcias Average Yards per Run.

"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"

by UNFNOLE on Sep 10, 2009 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rushing will improve the red zone.

If you can move the ball into the red zone and run it to the 5 or so , you can throw a fade , slant , a TE Out when it is close to the endzone. First of all , gruden never had any variety of plays. He never ran fades , we have ab who is 6’1 and clayton who is 6’3, he needed to run slants with AB . I think that When Winslow gets in the red zone, that is when he will really earn his money. I want to see the bucs score in the red zone. Garcia was just so careful and we ran 2 WR routes. Just throw the ball up and let your WR go get it at the back pylon. Leftwich will be more aggressive and I think that we have the backs to pound it now that we don’t have Dunn as our primary ball carrier.

by tbbuc4 on Sep 10, 2009 1:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He ran a pseudo fade with Jerramy Stevens in New Orleans

on a great throw from McCown and even better catch. That was a back shoulder fade/stop route.

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by Buc Wild on Sep 10, 2009 8:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This was 1 play in 2007.

What about all of 2008?

by tbbuc4 on Sep 10, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm saying the play was there

but do you want to run a fade with Garcia? I don’t. and Bryant is 6’1, taller than the average CB, but most fades are run with guys 6’3 and up, bigger advantage. Also depends on play call, location, down, if there is safety help over top, LB underneath.

I dont care what we run in the red zone. I want 6, not 3.

UNFNole, did you say I should be expecting an email from you?

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by Buc Wild on Sep 10, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree I want 6 ,

The best way to get 6 is to create matchups and give yourself a chance by getting the ball to the mismatches. The only way to do this is by having more creative plays. Gruden was not creative in goal line situations. I agree it was not garcia strength to throw fades but if drew brees can do it at 6’0 , so can garcia. I blame the coach for the play calling. Crossing routes are rarely going to work on the goal line and that is what the bucs ran alot of.

by tbbuc4 on Sep 10, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, you should...

I just haven’t sent it yet

"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"

by UNFNOLE on Sep 10, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Winslow should help give us more options in the red-zone

for sure.

"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"

by UNFNOLE on Sep 10, 2009 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What do you think about the signing of A. J . Trapasso

Does this mean that Dirk Johnson will be released? A.j was signed to the practice squad today. I think that this assures that Johnson will be released. Here is a look at the numbers:

Dirk Johnson – 24 punts 39.8 yard average with net of 35, 1 punt blocked.

AJ Trapasso – 16 punts 40.5 average with net of 39, 4 punts inside the 20 with 0 touchbacks.

by tbbuc4 on Sep 10, 2009 1:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Booo...

Gano.

"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"

by UNFNOLE on Sep 10, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd have to look a bit more and check out contracts also

We’d have to see where both weer punting from, punting to, and if the reason DJ’s net is so low is due to poor coverage or poor hang time.

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by Buc Wild on Sep 10, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If the youth movement holds true. AJ will be the guy week 2.

The bucs seem to be out with the old and in with the new. Dirk is a old guy, in his mid to late 30’ s and AJ is a rookie. I look at this as AJ Has a stronger leg, alot more hang time and he was the first to hit the score board in dallas staduim. That means he give the coverage team time to get down there. I have been very unimpressed with the kicking and punting game and when a fan notices this, you have a problem. Dirk seems to have a weak leg . I don’t think money is a issue with punters. Neither make that much.

I would be interested in some stats if you can dig them up. Obviously Morris and Special teams coach liked what they saw in game 1. We did have pretty terrible field position from what I remember so he must have been doing a good job punting. Most guys get picked by having a good showing . Luke played good vs Jags, now he is a jag. AJ must have punted good vs bucs, now he is a buc. I doubt that they would have bought in a 2nd punter if they were happy with dirk. DIrk is out IMO

by tbbuc4 on Sep 10, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs