Follow Up to Clayton Article

by Buc Wild on Jun 17, 2009 3:24 PM EDT Comment 4 comments

I was able to secure information on dropped passes in 2008 for receivers, which I thought might be worth looking into. There can't be any trend analysis or predctive values here as we have one seasons worth of data, but thought it might at least provide some factual basis with which to look at players in relation to the 2008 season.

In the previous piece I discussed targets (balls intended for a WR) as well as what percentage of targets turned into receptions. This is a very vague number as it doesnt indicate what number of passes were catchable.

What I want to do here is look at a few different figures for 2008 involving the Bucs WR's as well as a few similar players in the NFL for comparison sake. We'll look at drops as a % of catchable passes, what % were catchable and % of catches for first downs.

First things first. I'm using receptions + drops to equal catchable balls. We can use this number to see what % of catchable balls were caught/dropped. Secondly, to offer some league comparisons, I've tried to identify some players that play similar roles with somewhat similar body types to each Bucs receiver. Clayton has Muhsin Muhammed, Michael Jenkins, and Amani Toomer (possession receivers over 6'2"). Bryant will be looked at against Braylon Edwards, Roddy White, and Greg Jennings (#1 WR with size/speed). Hilliard and Galloway are posted as Buccaneers references, along with Dunn. I didn't include any other running backs as their drops are not able to be accessed.

Player	Targets	Rec	Drops	% Catchable Dropped	% Catchable	% for 1st Down
Michael Clayton	61	38	2	5.0%	65.6%	34.4%
Antonio Bryant	137	83	5	5.7%	64.2%	43.8%
Ike Hilliard	58	47	2	4.1%	84.5%	53.4%
Joey Galloway	28	13	1	7.1%	50.0%	21.4%
Warrick Dunn	68	47	6	11.3%	77.9%	N/A

You can see here that though Clayton is lambasted for drops, he is the second lowest drop % on the team in 2008. All 3 top WR (Bryant, Clayton, Hilliard) are at a respectable level. Clayton is catching 95% of the catchable balls, with Bryant slightly worse and Hiliard slightly better. Compared to his teammates, he is not accounting for as many first downs, but is securing the ball at a comparable rate. This also shows how Ike was so reliable in converting catches to first downs, at an over 50% rate. Now to compare Clayton and his contemporaries.

Player	Targets	Rec	Drops	% Catchable Dropped	% Catchable	% for 1st Down
Michael Clayton	61	38	2	5.0%	65.6%	34.4%
Muhsin Muhammed	108	65	8	11.0%	67.6%	42.6%
Amani Toomer	89	48	6	11.1%	60.7%	33.7%
Michael Jenkins	81	50	2	3.8%	64.2%	45.7%
Hines Ward	125	81	7	8.0%	70.4%	44.0%

Clayton holds up pretty respectably against these players. All perform similar roles, possession/secondary receivers with size (outside of Ward). He does have a bit of a smaller sample size but is still performing at a better than comparable rate. And now to look at the other Bucs receivers.

Player	Targets	Rec	Drops	% Catchable Dropped	% Catchable	% for 1st Down
Antonio Bryant	137	83	5	5.7%	64.2%	43.8%
Ike Hilliard	58	47	2	4.1%	84.5%	53.4%
Roddy White	148	88	8	8.3%	64.9%	41.2%
Braylon Edwards	138	55	16	22.5%	51.4%	30.4%
Greg Jennings	140	80	7	8.0%	62.1%	39.3%
Brandon Stokley	85	49	4	7.5%	62.4%	41.2%

Based on the subset of numbers above, for all receivers, the Bucs are performing at a pretty good clip in comparison to other similar offenses/players. The Bucs offense really emphasized the short pass, which could attribute for a better than average catch rate, but perhaps all of the discussion on Clayton (or any Bucs) drops were a bit exaggerated. This is only 2008 data, but I think we can all be thankful, that for at least one season we performed well, and we didnt have Butterfingers Edwards on our team.

If anyone has any other comparable players, theories, or questions, I'd be glad to look into them, assuming the availability of data.

Content provided by a member of Buc 'Em.

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Nice job, always felt like Clayton was more of a forgotten man, rather than a failed man

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jun 17, 2009 3:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think what the stats cant show

are what particular ball has been dropped. How big of a situation was it when the ball was thrown in his direction. For example, that one handed touchdown grab in the carolina game from Bryant was something for the ages..
On the other hand, M. Clayton has a tendency to drop the BIG pass. The 3rd and 5 situations while down by 3 with 2 mins left. Which would lead to the assumption that you said that he just has a mental lapse or lacks confidence in those areas. Maybe he was just trying to hard to make the big play to get out of Gruden’s doghouse.. only time will tell.

by miracles83 on Jun 17, 2009 3:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The stats don't show situational instances

and you’re right, it doesnt allow us to determine in what situation was a pass dropped, but it also doesn’t show things like wrong route run, slipped on wet turf, didnt run route (lazy, Galloway). As I mentioned before, the stats also can’t give us a tangible value on his blocking ability. No where in the box score does Claytons block to spring Galloway come into play. Stats are great, but can be limited. In this case it gives us a look at what % of catchable balls were dropped, and thats it. As a wide receiver in the NFL, I’d imagine any drop is not tolerated.

by Buc Wild on Jun 17, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs