With the 15th pick in the 2004 draft, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers select WR Michael Clayton from Louisiana State University. 

And with that, the Bucs had apparently drafted our go-to receiver for the next 10 years, a physical, big receiver who had no issue with going across the middle.  He rewarded us with a rookie season that had us dreaming of what this guy could do with the football in his hands.  Sadly, the next four seasons have been largely a disappointment.  There have been a few memorable plays, “The Block”, his game winning touchdown catch against Cincinnati in 2006, and his return to the land he had forgotten (the end zone) in 2008. 

There are a number of reasons for his drop off, but one of the biggest goes unnoticed.  First, let’s address the known reasons. 

1)      Lazy/Ill-prepared:  After his break out rookie season, Clayton came into 2005 out of shape and unprepared.  He admitted that success might have come too easily, thus he slacked off and didn’t prepare as a true professional should. 

2)      Injuries:  He’s battled various nagging injuries that haven’t allowed him to practice, train or stay on the field.  In the offseason after 2004 he had minor knee surgery, holding him out of any conditioning work.  In 2005 he had turf toe which hampered him down the stretch and ultimately led to his benching in week 17 and the playoff loss against Washington.  2006 saw him go on injured reserve for the ever popular “undisclosed injury”. 

3)      Emergence of other Receivers:  Galloway came over the same year Clayton did (2004) but after injuring himself in the first game, it allowed Clayton to take over.  Galloway’s re-emergence in 2005, Ike Hilliard’s reliability and the recent re-discovery of Bryant have left Clayton as the forgotten receiver. 

4)      Mental:  There is no doubt in my mind that Clayton can succeed.  His mental lapses likely stem from trying to hard; trying to do much when afforded the opportunity.  His drops have plagued him (and the team) and the lack of confidence by then head coach Jon Gruden only seemed to put Clayton further behind the 8 ball. 

5)      System:  Gruden’s offense has a history of primarily focusing on one receiver.  That individual (Galloway, Bryant etc) has an opportunity to turn in statistical highs based on increased targets and routes run.  Without going too in depth, it’s designed to allow the primary receiver to run free in the mid to deep zones, with the 2/3 WR occupying the underneath routes. 

6)      Decrease in Snaps:  All of the above points led to this, decrease in snaps.  It’s a pretty simple concept.  The more you’re injured, the less trust the coach has in you, the more unprepared you are, the less you see the field. 

One of the bigger culprits in Clayton’s lack of production comes from a relatively easy to understand concept:  lack of targets.  It stands to reason that an NFL wide receiver can only produce statistically (what most fans notice) when given the opportunity.  In short, if he doesn’t have the pass thrown his way, how can he catch and score?  I went back through Clayton’s NFL career (2004-present) and compiled his stats based on targets, along with the NFL’s top target receiver each year and the Bucs leader.  I took a look at (in order) Targets, Receptions, Yards, Yards per Target, % of Targets caught, and NFL rank in Targets.

Let’s break this down stat by stat.  The most obvious is targets.  This is typically defined as any ball thrown at a receiver where they were the intended target.  The ball does not necessarily have to be catchable, just in the direction of the receiver where they were the intended target.  Clayton was our number 1 WR in 2004 in every statistical category.  Removing bias from the equation, and forgetting about whether he deserved more looks than he received, you can see he went from a true #1, a top 25 guy in targets, to never better than 66th in targets.  Lack of trust, lack of playing time, inability to hold on to the ball all contributed here.  He consistently saw less than half of the looks that the Bucs #1 WR received from 2005-2008. 

I don’t want to dwell on catches too long as some targets aren’t catchable (as mentioned above).  I wanted to compare total number of drops and drop % but can’t find any historical data on drops.  If you know where to find that data, let me know and I will include it.

Yards per target gives an indication of how a receiver is able to utilize each opportunity and is not as easily swayed by small or long gains.  After all, if a WR received 10 targets in a game, but caught 1 for an 80 yard TD, his yards per catch is 80.0, but his yards per target is 8.  Those other 7 passes may have been shorter routes.

The % of targets caught surprisingly falls into a similar range as the Buc's and NFL's leader.  What does this mean?  Absolutely nothing without further research.  Without knowing how many were catchable, how many were dropped, and where the routes took place (a screen is easier to catch than a 40 yard bomb with 2 DB's on you), I don't want to make any all encompassing statements.

Let me be the first to point out that lack of targets does not solely describe Clayton’s downturn in production.  As mentioned above, work ethic from a young receiver, injuries, mental lapses and even lack of confidence by coach and QB all attribute to his downturn.  This does indicate his changing role in the Bucs offense.  He went from their do it all receiver (2004) with a yards per target of 9.77 yards to a role playing 2nd/rd receiver, declining as low as 5.56 yards per target. 

I’m perfectly fine with Clayton being a secondary receiver, a possession option.  His wide frame and lack of elite speed make him ideal to run across the middle and position himself to be successful.  We have a deep threat and a number 1 WR in Bryant (and did in Galloway), so to expect a replay of 2004 from Clayton is unrealistic.  His numbers, his size, his mentality at this point all lead to a role as a possession guy.  To do this, he has to not only adapt and check his ego, he has to become a better route runner.  He has to learn to read not only the defense, but his quarterback, how to break off his routes at the right time and use his body as an asset against defensive backs and line backers. 

For all that Clayton has done wrong; there are plenty of things that he does exceptionally well.  Outside of his statistically strong 2004 season, he has become a great contributor in the run game with his blocking.  There’s no question where #80 will be when he doesn’t have the ball.  He continuously works for his team mates down the field, which has led some to call for his move to tight end.  This might be ill-conceived, but it is a testament to his willingness to do the dirty work that often is overlooked. 

I was in the camp that Clayton needed to go, that there was no explaining his regression as a receiver.  But with Clayton signing a five year deal with the Bucs this offseason; we are in for a few more years of #80.  He has shown he can be a playmaker (2004).  He has shown flashes of his old self in years past.  He's a Buc, and as such I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.  The past excuses of injuries, system, coach, are all gone, this year presents a fresh new offense witha new QB and new coach.  This is his opportunity to break away from the Clayton mold. 

This isn't a comprehensive look at Clayton, nor am I inferring that Clayton is a definite #1 or #2 WR, merely that we as fans tend to call players out based on lack of production.  We use those easy-to-read box scores that only display the oft-tracked data;  Yards, catches, TD’s.  It doesn’t account for blocking, drops, or targets.  One of the biggest plays for Clayton that drew everyone’s attention was his block against New Orleans that sprung Galloway for a touchdown, and last I checked, that never showed up in the box score. 

For more on Clayton, check out Niko521buc's two part story

Part 1

Part 2