The 2009 season will be Ruud's 5th season in the NFL, his 3rd as a full time starter.  The mustached hero from Nebraska has quietly become one of the stalwarts in the middle, a smart, free-flowing defender who has made his way onto the majority of the "Best MLB'ers in the league."  He has proven time and again that he is not only a smart defender, but a rangy one at that, securing one of the more acrobatic interceptions last year.  While he was a perfect fit for the Cover 2 scheme that Kiffin and company installed in Tampa a decade ago, there are some concerns, albeit minor ones, as to how he will learn and fit into this new system.

The cover 2 maximized Ruud's strengths.  He was decisive and able to read plays on the first step, he was speedy for a linebacker, able to take away the middle part of the field in his Cover 2 drop, and for the most part, was a sure tackler, able to stop forward progress at the point of contact and secure the tackle. 

Moving into a different scheme, he will be asked to do different things.  Jim Bates' scheme focuses on speedy linebackers, which Ruud should fit into.  The most important part for Ruud will be the ability of the defensive line, specifically the tackles to keep him "clean" and allow him to flow to the ball, or more importantly have everything funnel to him where he can make the sure tackle. The biggest concern is the ability to stay on the field, which stands true for most players.  As he is involved in more plays, it raises the potential to get dinged up.  He hasn't shown a propensity to miss time and hopefully the trend continues.

Ruud's stats seem to indicate a player who "gets it".  Using NFL.com stats, here are his last two years (only years as full time starter).  Keep in mind the "tackle" stat is a bit subjective

This ranked him 4th in total tackles in 2007 and in the top 10 in INT's for linebackers.  His 3 sacks were an added bonus as the Mike LB is not typically asked to blitz or be in the backfield in the Tampa 2 system.  His 114 tackles in 2007 ranked him 19th in the NFL, just ahead of perennial Pro-Bowler Derrick Brooks.

What can we expect from Ruud in his 5th season?  Perhaps the most notable player to use for comparison is Zach Thomas, who was coached by Bates in Miami.  To compare, we'll look at Thomas before and after Bates.  To do this, I'll use the his average numbers in all years which he was a full time starter before Bates (96-99) and his average numbers with Bates' system in place (00-04)

His solo tackles stayed roughly the same (and about in line with Ruud to date), but he was involved in many other plays, as his assisted tackles jumped 27% under Bates' system. 

Another interesting parallel is age.  Thomas came into the league at the age of 23, and was first linked to Bates at the age of 27, typically a players prime.  Ruud came into the league at the age of 22 and is 26 this year, his first with Bates.  Ruud is a bit taller than Thomas, but this shouldnt affect any abilities as Ruud has shown both good coverage skills and the ability to get low to make a tackle.

Of all the changes in systems, both offensive and defensive, Ruud's change seems to be the most seamless.  There's new lingo, new styles, new players to learn, but this system is built for someone like Ruud.  As long as he stays on the field and adapts to the system, this looks to be right up his alley.  He has been all over the field in previous years, and with that ability coupled with the idea that each play is meant to flow to the MLB in Bates' system, I can't see Ruud doing anything other than flourishing the next few years.  I dont think any of us would be disappointed if he put up Thomas like numbers for the next few years. 

There are other factors to consider in this.  How will our DT's play?  Will they allow Ruud to make plays?  Will this contract situation and a possible hold out hinder him and/or the team?  (On that note, I think we all can agree Ruud is a rising talent, and a future star in the league if he isn't already one.  Let's use some of that cap space and lock him up).  We won't be able to answer any of these questions until next off season, when we have a chance to look back and see how the system did in year 1.  So as we start to anticipate the start of the 2009 season, we know a key factor is how the defense plays, and that rests squarely on the shoulders of Mr. Ruud.  I don't see anything that indicates a fall off or plateau, but rather see a chance for Ruud to step up and be a leader both on and off the field.  The locker room has primarily been cleared of any veteran voices, which will give Ruud a cahnce to establish himself as a locker room leader, and field general. 

You typically hear that in the 3rd year is when most players get it, when you can really start to evaluate if they are here to stay or merely a role player or castoff.  We have several players stepping into their 3rd year (Gaines Adams for one).  While this is Ruud's 5th year, its his 3rd as an everyday starter.  But based on previous years of play, the history of MLB's in Bates's scheme, and Ruud hitting his physical prime for the next few years, the stars are aligning for Ruud to become the next great linebacker in Buccaneers history.

(On a personal note, I haven't decided if I'll do a position by position analysis of Tampa 2 vs 4-3 "Run Contain".  Might be interesting to see how each position is valued, what we have, how they performed and were valued in the Tampa 2 and the projections/comparisons from the past).