A Historical Look at Kickers Drafted in Rds 1-3
by FreeZorilla on Nov 2, 2009 12:43 PM EST
44 comments
The staff at Buc 'Em got into a little debate over the weekend regarding the merits of selecting kickers in the early rounds of the NFL draft. I thought it might be wise to bring some facts to the table. Here is a list of all kickers drafted in Rounds 1-3 since 1989 and their FG% for ranges 30-39, 40-49, and 50+.
| Kicker | Year | Rd | Pick | 30-39 | 40-49 | 50+ | PB |
| Sebastian Janikowski | 2000 | 1 | 17 | 89.2% | 70.0% | 47.6% | 0 |
| Mike Nugent | 2005 | 2 | 47 | 82.4% | 68.0% | 33.3% | 0 |
| Jason Hanson | 1992 | 2 | 56 | 93.3% | 73.0% | 54.7% | 2 |
| Nate Kaeding | 2004 | 3 | 65 | 95.0% | 69.6% | 63.6% | 1 |
| Martin Gramatica | 1999 | 3 | 80 | 83.1% | 59.3% | 63.0% | 1 |
| Brett Conway | 1997 | 3 | 90 | 75.0% | 73.1% | 45.5% | 0 |
| Steve McLaughlin | 1995 | 3 | 82 | 33.3% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0 |
| Doug Brien | 1994 | 3 | 85 | 84.9% | 73.9% | 53.6% | 0 |
| Jason Elam | 1993 | 3 | 70 | 91.5% | 66.1% | 60.9% | 3 |
| 2008 League Average | 89.1% | 74.5% | 63.5% | ||||
| 1999 League Average | 79.9% | 67.5% | 48.3% | ||||
| 1989 League Average | 82.8% | 66.8% | 71.0% |
This was meant only as a brief look and not a true scientific study. Some caveats to keep in mind:
*Not all kicking environments are equal. Most of these kickers however, were drafted into good kicking environments. That makes sense from the standpoint of drafting into your teams home-field strength.
*I included 3 years worth of averages to show the trend. Its not fair to compare elder statesmen Hanson and Elam to just the 2008 league average.
*A good chunk of the huge increase in league average is due to modern day strength and conditioning and a deeper talent pool. Remember, these are league averages. You might expect early picks (projected as elite) from 10 or 20 years ago to come closer to 2008 league averages. (Yesterday's best = Today's Average Theory).
*I included Pro Bowls just for fun. Not a great track record for the drafted elite. Pro Bowls are not at all a great measure for properly evaluating talent however.
My take: Given the huge increase in the league average, I do not deem it a wise use of an early round draft pick for a kicker. The median and even bottom tiered kickers are far closer to the best kickers than they were 10 and 20 years ago. The track record of this sample is a truly mixed bag, so project-ability is no sure thing.
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The league average for 50+ is a bit higher than I would have thought
but nonetheless can give you an indication that a good kicker can be found just about anywhere. In the 3rd round, 7th round, or on the street.
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by Buc Wild on Nov 2, 2009 12:57 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I think it's pretty hard to find a great kicker
There are quite a few serviceable kickers in the NFL, and you have to be pretty darn amazing just to make an NFL team.
I don’t think it’s worth it to draft a kicker in the first 3 rounds unless your team is absolutely stacked and you just have one glaring need at kicker.
Adam Vinatieri, who in my opinion, is probably the greatest clutch kicker of all time went undrafted in 1996 out of South Dakota State and debuted for the Patriots that same season.
You get what you pay for.
by LeeCaz on Nov 2, 2009 1:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
When the Bucs drafted Gramatica, they used a 3rd round pick and it was worth it.
He earned that nick name automatica.
Wasnt until his abdominal injuries (last I heard was the reason) messed him up around 03/04 that he wasnt reliable anymore.
Id be willing to bet if Sturgis continues to kick like this, someone is going to invest an upper round draft pick on him.
And I am no Gator homer either.
Will the NY Jets please stop wearing those Titans uniforms. For a team that was only around for one year, Ive seen those uniforms 5 times already!
by Niko Houllis on Nov 2, 2009 6:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The question is, could you have gotten similar performance from a later round pick?
Based on Grammatica being right around league averages, I’d venture a guess that we could.
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by Buc Wild on Nov 2, 2009 6:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thats why Im not a stat guy.
I WATCHED Gramatica WIN games for us, single handedly.
a number, say 78%, doesnt tell you anything.
When a FG was NEEDED, Gramatica nailed it through..even from 50+…
Check out Carolina game from 2002, Atlanta game from 1999, to name a few.
Will the NY Jets please stop wearing those Titans uniforms. For a team that was only around for one year, Ive seen those uniforms 5 times already!
by Niko Houllis on Nov 2, 2009 6:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
however, could we have gotten someone to do the same thing, yes, we probably could have.
After all, its a crap shoot isnt it?
NO one knew Matt Bryant and he turned out pretty solid, but came into the NFL so late in his life….
….and what ever happened to the guy who he beat out? Todd France I believe? He Barely even beat out France, Gruden just liked his experience at Giants Stadium.
Will the NY Jets please stop wearing those Titans uniforms. For a team that was only around for one year, Ive seen those uniforms 5 times already!
by Niko Houllis on Nov 2, 2009 7:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Todd France is an agent now, but I could be wrong
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 2, 2009 9:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Single-handedly?
C’mon that is so insulting to the rest of the Bucs team that was on the field for the 98% of plays that Tica was not. You don’t think there were a dozen readily available kickers off the street who could have made those? Its the lone skill he is paid to do.
If you really want to play the clutch card, do you know what Tica was in games decided by 7 points or less when Field Goals mattered the most? 74-109 for a sad 67.9%. Normally I would attribute that to gosh darn shucky luck on distribution, but you brought up the clutch card. As a fan, your eyes will choose to remember the game winners, but all kickers make some.
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 2, 2009 9:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
are your numbers of Gramatica from 99-02? or are you including the 03 & 04 years too,
Because I admit he was not the same kicker then…
Plus..Ok, I probably overused the words single-handedly. I will retract that, because we know the defense was so dominant those days, but the offense wasnt, and Gramatica saved their skins many times.
But seriously, go back and redo those numbers from 99-02 only, disregard 03 and 04.
I hardly remember a miss…also true though about how we remember the good ones.
Will the NY Jets please stop wearing those Titans uniforms. For a team that was only around for one year, Ive seen those uniforms 5 times already!
by Niko Houllis on Nov 2, 2009 9:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I remember that miss in Green Bay that cost the Bucs HFA.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 3, 2009 10:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, game 16 @ GB.. So shockng the Fox crew was annointing Bucs champions...
That was a crazy miss. And there is no telling where the Bucs go if he makes it in freezing weather.
Will the NY Jets please stop wearing those Titans uniforms. For a team that was only around for one year, Ive seen those uniforms 5 times already!
by Niko Houllis on Nov 3, 2009 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Was it?
The name pseudo-rhymed so it was a natural fit with minimal performance. He was always inconsistent. Made some great clutch kicks, and missed some. In 2001, he was 0-3 from 50+. He finished 2 seasons in the top 10 in FG%, both times right at #10. I’m not sure that counts outstanding production worthy of a 3rd round pick when 12 games a year are played in the favorable kicking conditions of an NFC South stadium. I’m not trying to bash MG, as he certainly qualified as serviceable.
As for Sturgis. I am a proud biased Gator alumnus and I do not foresee Strugis as a high draft pick.
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 2, 2009 9:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I am against Sturgis if only for the reason he wears orange and blue
but he seems like most college kickers, streaky, has a leg, but will miss some chippies every once in awhile.
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by Buc Wild on Nov 3, 2009 8:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
automatica..
99- he is 8/8 20-29, 10/12 30-39, 6/8 40-49, 3/4 for 50+, for a total of 27 of 32. With the offense we had that year, he was a major contributor to that offense, come on now….
2000- not much differet… 8/8 20-29, 8/10 30-39, 7/9 40-49, 5/7 from 50+ for total of 28 of 34.
Total first two years… 55/66 for 83%. The guy was dominant those first two years.
Dont you remember the Carolina game of 02 in Charlotte? or the Atlanta game in 99? He wont those two games by himself…
Will the NY Jets please stop wearing those Titans uniforms. For a team that was only around for one year, Ive seen those uniforms 5 times already!
by Niko Houllis on Nov 2, 2009 9:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Games 7 pts or less
1999: 11/13
2000: 14/18
2001: 16/22
2002: 10/13
51/67=76.1%
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 2, 2009 10:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I remember that Chicago game's big miss in 2001 after a nice comeback from brad.
Will the NY Jets please stop wearing those Titans uniforms. For a team that was only around for one year, Ive seen those uniforms 5 times already!
by Niko Houllis on Nov 3, 2009 1:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If anything, you guys are proving yourselves wrong with what the Bucs have done this year...
They go out and get ANYONE off the street.
Nugent, and Andrus, and so far, ????
Anyways, we clearly are not going to agree on this…
so only time will tell if Sturgis is drafted high or not. The kid is impressive.
Will the NY Jets please stop wearing those Titans uniforms. For a team that was only around for one year, Ive seen those uniforms 5 times already!
by Niko Houllis on Nov 2, 2009 9:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think part of that is bad scouting by the Bucs
Gano has a leg and can kick, Stover was pulled off the street and he did fine. John Carney has been servicable in New Orleans. The Bucs just seemed to miss on their picks. Well, that’s not fair to Andrus just yet, he hasn’t been given a real shot.
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by Buc Wild on Nov 3, 2009 8:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed, not sure whats wrong with Andrus at this point
Nugent was pretty much panned when signed by the community.
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 3, 2009 9:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
More than a strong leg is needed to be a kicker
and I think most people understood that about Nugent. He had a strong leg apparently (not that I ever agreed with that), but was shaky at best as an accuracy guy.
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by Buc Wild on Nov 3, 2009 9:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.. The Colts bloggers were really talking him up.
Will the NY Jets please stop wearing those Titans uniforms. For a team that was only around for one year, Ive seen those uniforms 5 times already!
by Niko Houllis on Nov 3, 2009 1:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Great piece. Thanks for pulling those up man.
Definitely Rec’d.
It makes you wonder why the legs were stronger in the 80’s. Steroids? You would think with the physical and technological advancements since then that they would be stronger now.
"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"
by UNFNOLE on Nov 2, 2009 10:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Wow thats a typo.
It was a really poor 34.4% from 50% in 89. Nice catch
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 2, 2009 10:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe more of a true focus on scouting kickers?
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 3, 2009 10:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think a big part too is it's a year round job now
Kickers are paid lwoer than most players anyways, so back in the day, it was a part time job at best (as it was for all non-star players). Nowadays, these guys spend 50 weeks a year honing their craft.
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by Buc Wild on Nov 3, 2009 10:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder about the effects of the K-balls and any other changes over time.
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 3, 2009 10:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I took the 2009 field goal made leaders and found where/if each was drafted:
I’m not claiming this is historically significant or telling, but here’s the breakdown of the top 32:
So yeah, FreeZo looks right. Or, at least, the NFL agrees with him when he surmises that A) kickers are fungible, and B) highly volatile.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 3, 2009 11:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
and adequate guys can be found on the street any given year.
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by Buc Wild on Nov 3, 2009 11:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
Obviously FG made is going to affected by opportunities. I think the best measure would be to weight the %‘s per range over a 3 year period and rank them that way. I think the results would still be quite random and I’m not up for doing that much work to debate the naked eye. Between the post and this, our conclusions seem clear.
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 3, 2009 11:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Honestly, this is more work than I'm willing to do.
I don’t think it tells us anything we aren’t expecting, but certainly I could be wrong.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 3, 2009 12:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Samesies
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 3, 2009 12:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So....
Bring back Jay Taylor?
Sign lady must die.
by EminenceFront on Nov 3, 2009 11:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
UFL Kicker
Gano 4/5 Long 53
Czech 4/5 Long 45
Matt BRyant! 7/9 Long 41
Parker Douglass 4/6 Long 46
19/25 or 76% for the League with a log of 53
Gano’s 53 Yarder would be tied for 3rd in longest FG in NFL YTD
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 3, 2009 11:35 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I guess wait till 2019 and someone tells you Matt Bryant was a serviceable kicker
And brings up his numbers which support that.
You’ll know better.
Will the NY Jets please stop wearing those Titans uniforms. For a team that was only around for one year, Ive seen those uniforms 5 times already!
by Niko Houllis on Nov 3, 2009 1:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
...and they'll bring up that miss vs Chicago in 05.
Will the NY Jets please stop wearing those Titans uniforms. For a team that was only around for one year, Ive seen those uniforms 5 times already!
by Niko Houllis on Nov 3, 2009 1:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, this is the right attitude to take.
Numbers suck. They tell us nothing. Let’s rely on our memories and observations instead of objective measures. Instead of making an effort to understand things, you’re just trashing them because they don’t fit your opinion.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 3, 2009 1:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We just cut Shane Andrus.
We signed Kicker, Connor Barth. Supposedly more accurate, but had the worst kickoff distance last season.
Now wasn’t that one of the reasons we cut Matt Bryant…?
by rjblitz02 on Nov 3, 2009 1:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
And speaking of which we waived Andrus for a new kicker
Will the NY Jets please stop wearing those Titans uniforms. For a team that was only around for one year, Ive seen those uniforms 5 times already!
by Niko Houllis on Nov 3, 2009 1:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Connor Bart?
Patriots are looking at Nugent
Will the NY Jets please stop wearing those Titans uniforms. For a team that was only around for one year, Ive seen those uniforms 5 times already!
by Niko Houllis on Nov 3, 2009 1:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Just trying him out, doing their due diligence. They've got Gostowski, not going anywhere
It’s not uncommon for teams to bring in 5-6 kickers a year just to get an idea of who can do what if there is an immediate need.
www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer
by Buc Wild on Nov 3, 2009 1:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I can't believe
I just read all this. You guys need to hug it out.
You get what you pay for.
by LeeCaz on Nov 3, 2009 1:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
THis is all because I wrote an article, for fun, that was titled.." forget Tebow, when does Sturgis come out...
Look at every chart in this thread, you see numerous kickers drafted…some in rounds 1-3, of which they are all pretty good kickers at one time or another.
I think its just arguing for the sake of arguing, personally Im done with it..
In my 30 years of watching football, Ive seen plenty of teams draft kickers and have it pay off for them, and its not going to stop. You can get good kickers off the street too, but when someone drafts a kicker, especially in rounds one, two or three, they are usually pretty damn good kickers.
Im not sure if 76.552% is good, pretty good or what, But when Martin Gramatica kicked for the Bucs, you pretty much knew you had 3 points on the board. I remember that much.
Will the NY Jets please stop wearing those Titans uniforms. For a team that was only around for one year, Ive seen those uniforms 5 times already!
by Niko Houllis on Nov 3, 2009 2:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You continue to miss the entire point.
The fact that you consider this “arguing just for arguing” is embarrassing to me.
FreeZo did fact-checking, unlike you, and found that your assertion that top drafted kickers are NOT as good as you made them out to be. That’s not arguing just for arguing, it’s called getting facts straight and not being dishonest.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 3, 2009 2:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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