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A disturbing trend

Looking at some of the recent numbers, the Bucs defense is bad.  We all knew this, but as I dig into some of the numbers, it's just overwhelming how bad the defense has become.  Most every team has a strength on either side of the ball.  We know that the Patriots like to pass the ball.  We've seen the Vikings in the past shut down the run.  Every team has certain personnel and schemes that allow them to be successful in varying parts of the game.

This brings me to the Bucs this year.  I want to focus on the defense rather than the offense for the simple reason that the numbers bear out just how bad it is.  I won't use advanced stats in this article, mainly because they aren't available through Week 6 yet.

Hit the jump to check out some numbers. (Is there a jump in a fan post?)

Star-divide

The Bucs seem to be unable to stop anything consistently or do anything on offense consistently.  UNFNole and I have been harping on the fact that the team doesn't do any one thing well.  That's a recipe for disaster as most teams have a niche that allows them to excel in one field of play. 

To illustrate this point, I want to look at two teams that we've faced in back to back weeks.  The Philadelphia Eagles and the Carolina Panthers.  Let's use their identities this year.  The Eagles have become more of a passing team with Westbrook slowing down.  The Panthers have become more of a ground and pound team with Williams and Stewart.  I have the advantage of hindsight, but I don't think it takes an Einstein to say the goal should have been against the Eagles to take away the pass (keep McNabb dancing) and to take away the run for Carolina.

You see, Westbrook is pretty banged up, and by forcing the Eagles to run, I believe it would give us a better chance to win.  With the Panthers, Delhomme is having a dismal year.  By forcing him to the air, the Bucs would (and did) benefit from errant throws and reads.  Seems pretty elementary, right?  Well, let's look at the yards allowed for each game.

Team Total Pass Rush
Philly 325 249 76
Carolina 322 55 267

This makes me want to hit something hard.  The total yards are almost identical, but we allowed each team to beat us with their strength.  Rather than gameplan against the other team, it looks like we went out and focused on nothing in general.  Watching the Philly game, I didn't see blitzes, I didn't see safety help over top.  I didn't see rush 3 drop 8 to put more in coverage.

Conversely, against Carolina I didn't see 8-9 in the box.  We allowed the other team to dictate the game to us.  The run stats are skewed for carolina based on that last drive, but even when we knew the run was coming, we couldn't stop it.  That's what makes this even more frustrating.

For the record, after Week 6 the Bucs rank 11th in passing yards given up (thank you Jake Delhomme), 30th in passing TD's allowed (ouch), 31st in rush yards allowed per game and T-24 in rushing TD's allowed.  We do all things equally bad.  I'd much rather Bates and the defense focus on one thing each game.  If the Panthers had beaten us through the air while rushing for 30 total yards or so than you tip your hat to the Panthers for adjusting and beating us. 

To bring it to this week, we have the Patriots. They like to throw the ball (4th in passing yards and 13th in rushing yards).  This needs to be a game where we attempt to take away the pass.  We may not be successful, but don't allow the Patriots to dictate the game to our defense.  

This also furthers my point on the lack of adjustments or planning on either side of the ball.  It seems Bates can't figure out how to blitz or take away certain facets of the game just like Olsen hasn't figured out we have a few good running backs.

This certainly isn't advanced trend analysis, and I did use two games out of six, so it is a very small sample size, but this highlights a point I've been making all year long. 

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Infuriating. Lets keep an eye on it the rest of the season and then

accumulate it. If Morris keeps his job, Bates needs to go.

"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"

by UNFNOLE on Oct 20, 2009 2:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I dont think we can have an idea if anything is Bates fault because we KNOW the talent level on the D needs to be improved.

If anyone can get production out of Gaines Adams, it will be Rod Marinelli. Good Luck Gaines and thank you Bucs for restoring my confidence that there is accountability.

by Niko Houllis on Oct 20, 2009 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How long can we wait to find out?

Bucs need results if they want to move forward quickly. Bates not only hasn’t shown he can’t beat expectations, he stubbornly sticks to what fails.

"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"

by UNFNOLE on Oct 20, 2009 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well Im not sure about that...seems like hes gotten away from his system and started doing more Tampa 2 stuff with Ruud running deep in down the middle.

We havnt given up a big play in some time now.

This week will be a big test..

I have a funny feeling about this week. I want to go on record for saying that…I have a feeling this game is going to be closer than anyone thinks.

If anyone can get production out of Gaines Adams, it will be Rod Marinelli. Good Luck Gaines and thank you Bucs for restoring my confidence that there is accountability.

by Niko Houllis on Oct 20, 2009 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I will go on record and call you crazy.

But in a nice way.

"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"

by UNFNOLE on Oct 21, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I will take it!

And ill be crazy EITHER WAY!

If anyone can get production out of Gaines Adams, it will be Rod Marinelli. Good Luck Gaines and thank you Bucs for restoring my confidence that there is accountability.

by Niko Houllis on Oct 21, 2009 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

we deffinately

dont blitz as much as i think we should. Even though that might be because the DC Bates is afraid our pass D isnt good enough to cover if we do. Hmmmm….not good. Its almost like we are playin a game of “pick your poison” which is a lose-lose situation either way we go.

by Luckydabney7 on Oct 20, 2009 3:13 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Untrue

We lost Haye, Carter, Brooks, and Buchanon. None are setting the world on fire right now. We had a very good defense last year until the last quarter of the season.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Oct 21, 2009 7:24 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

They all quit when Monte quit, after he announced he was going to UT, that’s when the streak started.

by bucnut1 on Oct 21, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That lacks credibility

J.J LOVE SPREADS while RAHEEM MORRIS'S PLAN FOR NFLDOMINECION IS COMING TO AN END.

by Some other guy who does not care on Oct 21, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was never a big fan of P-Buck, I thought he gave up a lot of bad plays, more so than anyone else.

Jovan Haye had a good solid 2007, but regressed in 2008. And of course Carter and Brooks were playing as long as anyone would let them, as those two guys really had a love for the game. They both had a history of playing no matter what. Hurt? in Pain? Kevin Carter and Derrick Brooks were champions in every sense of the word. Just past their prime in 2008.

If anyone can get production out of Gaines Adams, it will be Rod Marinelli. Good Luck Gaines and thank you Bucs for restoring my confidence that there is accountability.

by Niko Houllis on Oct 21, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs


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