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System of a (let) down

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I have a secret for all you Bucs fans.  It's been pretty much kept quiet all year and I'm wondering if and when other teams will figure it out.  Want to know what it is?  Here you go.  The Bucs defense is bad.  Oh, that's not a secret?  I just figured with all the "Fire Raheem Morris" talk and virtual silence on Jim Bates and his run contain scheme that no one had figured out that this system with current personnel was a monster fail.

Last week I wrote an article about the inconsistencies and lack of identity that the Bucs suffered from.  On Sunday against the Iggles, we saw more of the same.

Star-divide

To snap back to reality, anyone who has watched more than 4 minutes of Bucs defense understands how bad it is.  We've gone from a system (Cover 2) that emphasized pressure with the front four and two deep safeties with everything coming underneath, to a system (Run Contain) that is supposed to funnel all plays to the middle of the field and beat the passing game by playing man up on defense with pressure forcing the ball out early.  News flash:  it ain't happening.

Bates' scheme is one of two things.  Antiquated or mismanaged.  A change in scheme is not a bad thing, and generally takes time.  Unless there are massive roster changes, most teams adjust from a 4-3 to 3-4 or a different scheme over the course of a few years.  And this Bucs defense may be in transition for a few years, but it's a massive fail for the time being. 

Bates was brought in with his scheme and it was forced on the players.  He took several years of Cover 2 drafting and then tried to fit those players into his scheme.  Now, he was hired as the DC, so it's no surprise his scheme came with him.  I'm a bit surprised we haven't seen more of a hybrid defense or a bigger split between Cover 2 and man up.  All players are not equal at all schemes.  Each player has talents and weaknesses that can be hidden or exposed based on responsibilities.  What we are seeing now is players built and tutored on the Cover 2 being exposed in the man defense game. 

Three years from now, we may look back with a dominant defense and say that the ends justified the means, but it's hard to say that from this point. 

And just to make sure I don't disappoint, here are some numbers, comparing 2008 and 2009 on the defensive side.  All numbers are per game averages.  I ran with 2008 just because it was the closest comparison talent wise that I could make.  2008 was not a special defense by any means, but here is a look at the defensive numbers allowed in 2008 and 2009.

  

Total Plays Total yds/game Avg yards/play Rush yds/game Rush yds/play Pass yds/game Pass yds/play
2008 59.06 306.12 5.2 118.81 4.3 187.31 6.7
2009 60.80 379.8 6.2 152.6 4.7 227.2 9.1

 No explanation needed.  More yards a game, more yards per play, by land, by air or by sea. 

3rd down % Sacks/game Int/game TD/game
2008 37.85% 1.81 1.38 2.13
2009 40.32% 1.8 1.4 3.2

The sacks and picks per game are relatively the same, but the touchdowns allowed per game is a killer. 

Of course, we are comparing a 16 game season that's been completed to a five game "season" thus far.  It's not a huge sample size yet and certainly a lot can change with more than two thirds of the season left. 

We all have our own thoughts on this mess.  No one is particularly happy about seeing Elbert Mack always running 3 yards behind a receiver, or seeing another bomb thrown to end up in our opponent's hands on his way to the end zone.  There is certainly a need for the players to be accountable for their mistakes and missed assignments, but I wonder how Bates is getting by with only a few words of anger in his direction.  The hire was made, good or bad.  But the scheme was instilled with no precautions for a young defense who had grown up on the Cover 2.  Maybe the fire Raheem chants are justified, but perhaps some of that ire should be directed towards the architect of our new defense.

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When Tomlin went to Pitt

He did not tear up a playoff caliber defense and scheme. I strongly disagreed at the time of GM and coaching transtion of the decision to change schemes. I get it. Teams are “learning how t beat the cover 2.” I say hogwash. The Bucs defense was worn down at the end of last season. The same pass rush issue we see now was there last year. We just did not get torched as badly. Had Tomlin scrapped the Steelers 3-4 (he was a Cover 2 D-Coordinator) the Steelers would have been set back years.

The other argument that I’ve maintained is that the NFL is a copycat league. If teams are moving towards the 3-4 as we have seen, that increases the supply of Tampa 2 talent and lowers the cost. More talent can be had deeper on drafts, because it is a different prototype. The notion the Tampa 2 was outdated is plain wrong.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Oct 12, 2009 10:42 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I wonder if the Bucs would have kept Monte had he opted to stay

I’d like to think he would have and then we would have had a Tomlin-Lebeau like foundation (young guy who keeps old DC who has a scheme that works). Maybe they would have let Kiffin go, though I doubt it. Morris still could have kept the Cover 2 in place, and brought up a Marinelli, Edwards, some other Dungy/Cover 2 disciple.

I didn’t like the transition either as it basically ensures a few years of below average defense. In 5 years, we may be fine, but that’s 5 lost years. This is a classic square peg, round hole situation.

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Oct 12, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And odds are they will choose to cut bait before then

There will certainly be pressure to. You can only get beat deep so many times.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Oct 12, 2009 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Word.

The problem isn’t scheme, it’s of defensive line talent. Doesn’t matter what scheme you run – Tampa Two or Denver’s 3-4 – you have to have defensive lineman who can disrupt the offensive line and rush the quarterback and we’ve had one game (Washington) where our team successfully did that. Jimmy Wilkerson got three sacks yesterday, but that was the only time we put McNabb under any kind of pressure. You can’t play Cover 1 and expect to shut down the passing game if your front four cannot generate pressure, or if you’re afraid to blitz (which we were).

by Suttree on Oct 12, 2009 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I just like how easy it is to find and develop players for the Tampa Two.

Look at what Indy has been doing since Dungy took over – if you ever wanted to talk about Moneyball in football, don’t look at the Patriots, look at Bill Polian’s abiltiy to identify overlooked talent and get by with quickness and technique rather than size.

by Suttree on Oct 12, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agree

Colts D has struggled of late due to the increase in popularity of the 2. With other teams moving away from it, it allows the Colts more freely available talent. Scary given how good their offense is. Its hard to be good when you are late to the party.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Oct 12, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The scheme may be fine, but it's a chicken or egg argument it seems

The scheme is fine but the players aren’t or the players are fine for the Cover 2 thus making the scheme the downfall. I think we all agree that the combination doesn’t work.

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Oct 12, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's certainly the combination - the only problem with this scheme is that it requires great players, where as the Tampa Two or Denver's 3-4 doesn't demand quite as well rounded talents.

Our defensive line play is so frustrating. Hovan and Sims have improved against the run as of late, but their inability to muster any kind of pass rush is infuriating, as is the complete lack of creativity when blitzing. Blitzing can backfire, but watching the Eagles construct and execute rushes designed exactly to attack our witnesses while we’d trot the same lame four man pass rush every time McNabb dropped back was infurating.

I’d like to see Wilkerson and Miller get some snaps together at DT.

by Suttree on Oct 12, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Kyle Moore will be welcomed here

He may not even be good, but he can’t be worse.

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Oct 12, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm frustrated by the lack of Dre Moore snaps.

He looked active and effective in preseason – you can’t throw him out there for a series or two?

by Suttree on Oct 12, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The other problem to the scheme

is that it isn’t deisnged to stop one thing. It’s designed to be a perfect defense that completely stops the offense altogether. The problem with that is it’s impossible to execute and results in a complete defensive failure. The best defenses in the league are designed to stop either the run or the pass first.

"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"

by UNFNOLE on Oct 12, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've pulled the numbers, but here they are again DVOA style.....

NYG are 2nd against the pass but 23 Against the Run. New Orleans is 1st against the run 16 against the Pass. SF is 1st against the Run but 10th (will be lower tomm.) against the pass. Jets are 4th against the pass and 15 against the run. Baltimore is 4 against the Run but 9th against Pass.

Defenses simply have to be designed to stop one aspect of offense first.

It doesn’t mean they are bad at the other, but average to slightly better. Why? Because the opposing teams become one dimensional. It is the greatest advantage a defense can have.

"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"

by UNFNOLE on Oct 12, 2009 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Suttree, I couldn't agree with you more.

Luckilly, this is a deep draft for D Linemen.

Eagles by 17= The Bucs are what we think they are. Eagles by 10? Respectable. Eagle by<7? A moral victory. Bucs win? See you at the airport!

by Niko Houllis on Oct 12, 2009 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If the Glazers did this to Manchester United

they would be calling for thier heads in the UK. They destroyed this team in the offseason and put them right back at 1976. They might as well wear the creamsicles every week and give fans brave enough to show up free bags for their heads.

There are coaches available that MIGHT be able to fix this mess, but not many and certainly not ANY on the current staff. And of those that could fix it, they want nothing to do with it since ownership has shown it has no clue on what its doing.

Anyone that resigns Michael Clayton, who hasn’t caught a TD pass in over 9 months, for FIVE years needs to be fired. Today. Now.

And Ronde in man?? HE’S TOO SLOW. I love him and yeah 10 years back ok, but LOOK AT WHAT YOU HAVE and coach accordingly.

If anyone on this planet thinks this team could beat last year’s team, they either have mental illness or live in a hut in the third world.

HOW??? HOW could the Glazers put Bucs fans through this AGAIN! Once was enough. The only hope this team could have for a win this year would be if there was an emergency owner meeting and they could add Cleveland to the schedule. No, wait, Cleveland beat the Bills who the Bucs lost to. I dunno, maybe, just maybe Washington. No wait, that crap team already beat us. Maybe the Rams or the Raiders. MAYBE.

0-16 is my prediction. And if the Bucs have any chance at a .500 season next year, massive changes THAT MAKE SENSE from the coaching staff on down are needed. Heck, maybe from the Owners on down.

by Bill S in Atlanta on Oct 12, 2009 4:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

They don't have that much invested in him

I heard he is the lowest paid head coach in the NFL. It’s not really like he has made any personnel decisions that we are married to (other than Freeman). I don’t think the players are going to mutiny if Morris gets fired.

I kind of feel sorry for the guy. He was set up for failure from the get go and he walked right into it. It kind of seems like ownership wants us to lose for some reason, kinda like the super bitchy owner in the movie Major League.

It’s not his fault they offered him the job like idiots. I would have said yes too if I were him. I’m sure his ultimate goal was to become a head coach one day. Gruden advised him to jump at the opportunity when he had a few qualms about taking the position. Why do I have the feeling that Gruden is sitting around somewhere laughing his ass off?

by LeeCaz on Oct 12, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

FoxSports

was saying there is talk amongst sources that they are talking to Dungy about returning. Obviously this is just a rumor, not something I will advertise on the front page. They said the same thing back in January, too. I don’t think Morris deserves to be fired even if he only wins 1 game, but the public perception does matter.

"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"

by UNFNOLE on Oct 12, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hah....

Last time I followed wrestling pretty much was when Owen Hart died. Good Ole Days.

"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"

by UNFNOLE on Oct 12, 2009 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think by what he means invested in Morris was his system. And Dungy turned an absolute mess around before. I remember someone talking about how it was a place of confusion when he got there at the end of Sam Wyche’s tenure. And how Dungy turned it all around. It may had been Brooks or Sapp who said that. I just don’t think the players are there that are needed and I don’t know what it would take to get him to come back or even if he would. Cower?

by Bill S in Atlanta on Oct 12, 2009 5:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I want a good HC

but the odds of landing a good HC to come in and turn things around is very slim considering the state of the Franchise.

J.J LOVE SPREADS while RAHEEM MORRIS'S PLAN FOR NFLDOMINECION IS COMING TO AN END.

by Some other guy who does not care on Oct 12, 2009 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hmmm

I now say to hell with it! We can blame anyone why not blame Aaron Sears! You know he probably didn’t show because he knew how bad our team would suck…

"Put it on Film" (not on the glass)

by chiefs_55 on Oct 13, 2009 1:37 AM EDT via mobile reply actions   0 recs


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